The World Around You

Well, since everyone else seems to be getting in on the act, here are my election predictions:

PRESIDENT

Popular Vote: Kerry 50 Bush 49 Nader 1

Electoral College:
Kerry: CA (55), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), IL (21), MA (12), MD (10), ME (4), MI (17), NJ (15), NY (31), OR (7), PA (21), RI (4), VT (3), WA (11), WI (10)

Bush: AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), AZ (10), CO (9), GA (15), ID (4), IN (11), KS (6), KY (8), LA (9), MS (6), MT (3), MO (11), NC (15), ND (3), NE (5), NM (5), NV (5), OK (7), SC (8), SD (3), TN (11), TX (34), UT (5), VA (13), WV (5), WY (3)

Giving each candidate the states he is most likely to win right now, brings us to Kerry at 234 and Bush at 232, with 6 states still outstanding. These are not necessarily the ones everyone thought we would have at this point (Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio), but here we are. No one can say with certainty how anything is going to fall, but here is how I see it.

I find it extremely difficult to believe that Bush is going to pull out Hawaii, based on a long history of strong Democratic support there and very little effort on Bush’s part to change that trend. On the flip side, I find it very plausible that Bush can pull out a victory in Iowa because he has put in the effort. So that gives each side one more state and gives Bush a one EV lead.

Though it did buck the trend in New England in 2000, I just don’t see New Hampshire doing it again this year. The polling looks good for Kerry and I will put NH in his column.

That leaves Florida, Minnesota, and Ohio. Kerry can take any two out of the three and win, but Bush does not win in every two out of three scenario. If Bush takes Minnesota and Ohio, while Kerry takes Florida, then we have the dreaded 269-269 scenario. Now Bush most likely wins here, but you have all kinds of things that can happen (i.e. rogue electors, back-channel deals in the House, etc.). My call? Kerry takes Ohio and Minnesota, while Bush takes Florida.

That makes my EV prediction Kerry - 272 Bush - 266. Have at it.

ALABAMA SENATE

Richard Shelby (R ) - 89%
Wayne Sowell (D) - 11%

UPDATE:

• James Joyner has it Bush - 286 Kerry - 252 (and has a pretty comprehensive list of other predictions)

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Atrios has the possible November surprise that could occur tomorrow. He has heard that Tommy Thompson will be making an announcement tomorrow related to prescription drugs for seniors.

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Michael Moore has a message for people who might try to prevent people from voting,

The director of the anti-Bush documentary “Fahrenheit 9/11″ announced Saturday that a total of 1,200 professional and nonprofessional cameramen, filmmakers and videographers will bring their cameras to polling places in the two presidential battleground states, especially in minority communities.

“I’m putting those who intend to suppress the vote on notice: Voter intimidation and suppression will not be tolerated,” Moore said in a statement.

I’d be interested to know if we hear any more about this if there are not such attempts to intimidate. Wouldn’t that mean something as well?

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The Montgomery Advertiser made its pick for President today. Unfortunately, they go through a lot of effort to preface their pick, like it will make any difference. I’m certain the charges of “liberal bias” have already rained down all over our capital city.

It is only about 48 hours until voters start casting ballots on election day, and still all the scientific polling being conducted nationally and in key battleground states cannot definitely tell who will win the race for the presidency. That is a testament to just how evenly divided this nation is politically.

But the partisan lines are drawn much differently in Alabama. Here, the polls clearly show that George W. Bush is not only very likely to win, but to win by a comfortable margin. That political leaning is also likely to be reflected in Republican wins in most congressional seats and in the U.S. Senate.

But editorial endorsements are not about picking along party lines; in fact, the Montgomery Advertiser strives to avoid being identified with either political party. That is reflected in both past and current endorsements. For instance, four of the five most recent presidential endorsements by this newspaper went to Republicans, and out of 19 endorsements made by the Montgomery Advertiser in this general election cycle, 11 went to Republicans and eight to Democrats.

Editorial endorsements also are not about picking winners; they are about picking the candidates that this newspaper’s editorial board thinks would best serve the public. And when it comes to the presidency, that is John Kerry.

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Ralph Nader visited Birmingham yesterdayand had much to say about what is wrong with the current system,

Nader said he is the candidate for “tens of millions of underdogs,” who are working for minimum wage and are barely getting by, who don’t have health insurance, who want a cleaner environment. Democrats, trying to keep up with Republican fund-raising, have stopped taking stands on economic issues, he said. “The two parties are really one corporate party with two heads wearing different makeup,” Nader said.

Nader advocates raising the minimum wage, implementing a single-payer health care system, a crackdown on corporate crime, and a rollback of Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

Nader said he was coming to places like Alabama that the two parties have written off: 31 states expected to fall heavily for one of the two major party candidates.

The national Democratic Party abandons the state Democrats every four years, giving the advantage to Republicans up and down the ballot, further entrenching the Republican party, he said.

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Eddie Curran of the Mobile Register continues to keep us up to date on the latest in the Siegelmangrand jury probe,

The bottom line: The Siegelman investigation is on hold until Young’s situation in Birmingham is resolved, either with a guilty plea or at trial.

Young had been scheduled to go to trial on the Cherokee County case on Nov. 15. But two weeks ago, Birmingham-based U.S. District Judge Karon O. Bowdre postponed the trial without assigning a new date, according to court records.

Assistant U.S. Attorneys Louis Franklin and Steve Feaga, who are heading up the Siegelman probe in Montgomery, declined to comment for this report, as did Young’s lawyer, Steve Glassroth.

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If Senator Kerry can’t win with all of the news breaking his way today, he never had a chance.

1. The explosives being confirmed to have been there after US troops arrived
2. The FBI opening an investigation into the award of Haliburton contracts
3. The Johns Hopkins University study estimating civilian casualties at over 100,000

None of these things are “good news”, but if Kerry doesn’t win in this news environment, I’m not sure he ever could have won. Now how he plays all of these stories is key. My advice, keep hitting the explosives story HARD. It IS emblematic of what was and is wrong with the way the operation was conducted. Talk about the other things, but don’t overplay your hand. The explosives story is breaking all your way and facts back up your position. Stick to it and ride it through to November 2nd. The swing voters will follow. Remember that that’s the prize. We’re not trying to convince anyone who is already convinced, just those people who aren’t quite sure.

UPDATE: Talk about speaking too soon…The release of the OBL tape is certainly going to put a new twist on the news and led all of the broadcasts last night. Not sure who it ultimately favors though. Kerry can certainly continue to hammer the point that OBL should have been captured and killed by now if more resources had been put behind that mission.

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Case closed, the explosives WERE there AFTER American troops arrived. I’m waiting for the apologies from Bush, Cheney, Rush, Hannity, O’Reilly and all you conservative bloggers. Why do I think they’ll never come?

ABC News on Thursday showed video that appeared to confirm that explosives that went missing in Iraq (news - web sites) did not disappear until after the United States had taken control of the facility where they were stored.
…
ABC said the video was shot by an affiliate TV station embedded with the 101st Airborne Division when members of the division passed through the facility on April 18, nine days after the fall of Baghdad.

ABC said experts who have studied the images say the barrels seen in the video contain the high explosive HMX, and U.N. markings on the sealed containers were clear.

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I’m a fan of Eminem and his new video just cements the respect I have for him as an artist and a commentator on our culture.

“Let me simplify the rhyme, just to amplify the noise.”

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Jefferson and Shelby County are already reporting record-breaking absentee voting. If find these thoughts interesting,

Earl Carter, the circuit clerk in Jefferson County’s Bessemer division, said he will easily break his record of 1,400 absentee ballots in a single election.

“I have no idea why,” Carter said.

The latest figure Carter had was that his office had taken in 1,138 absentee ballots.

Gee Earl, you think it might have to do with the fact that the country is evenly divided and people feel like it is their responsibility to have their voice heard? Do ya’ think that might have something to do with it?

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Megan McArdle, guestblogging at Instapundit, thinks Bush’s “one fingered victory salute” could be the October Surprise.

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It’s over, Bush has won the election, for Movie Villain of the Year.

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There seem to be a lot of people looking for this information.

• Secretary of State’s Website.

STATEWIDE BALLOT INFORMATION

• Federal Offices
• Statewide Offices
• Consitutional Amendments

COUNTY BALLOT INFORMATION

• Autagua, Butler, Elmore, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Pike and Tallapoosa Races
• Birmingham, Mobile and Huntsville Metro Area Races

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Published in today’s Wednesday (Prattville) Progress:
There was a very interesting study out of the University of Maryland last week. The Program on International Policy Attitudes released a report entitled “The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters”. In light of the split in America today, the results were remarkable. The conclusion of the report is that Americans are living in two distinct realities.

Let’s start with where we agree. The survey found that a large majority agrees that if there was no stockpile of weapons of mass destruction and if Iraq was not providing substantial support to Al Qaeda, we should not have gone to war. The survey found that 58% of Bush supporters and 92% of Kerry supporters believe this. The disagreement comes on the facts. Were there weapons of mass destruction? Was Iraq providing substantial support to Al Qaeda? The Duelfer report and the 9-11 commission report seem to say no, but those facts have not been accepted by all citizens.

The fundamental disagreement on facts extends far beyond the war. For example, 81% of Kerry supporters correctly perceive that he supports labor and environmental standards in trade agreements, yet only 13% of Bush supporters correctly perceive that he is against them. Why would so many supporters of the President believe he is for something he is not? Well, on this particular issue it may have something to do with the fact that most people are in favor of having these standards. It’s natural that they would assume their candidate supports their position.

Another surprising area where this disconnect occurs is the participation of the U.S. in a treaty that bans the testing of nuclear weapons. Only 24 percent of Bush supporters correctly perceive that the President does not support the treaty, while 77 percent of Kerry supporters correctly perceive that he does.

Does this mean Kerry supporters are more informed about their candidate than Bush supporters? I don’t think so. What I think it shows is that many Bush supporters support him no matter what, as I have heard so many times. They support him so much that they’re willing to bend reality to match up with that support. That frightens me. I may like the President, I may think he is right on many issues, but supporting him no matter what is dangerous. When you suspend you’re ability to disagree, then you give up a fundamental right that you possess to provide a check on elected officials. No one is always right and those mistakes need to be acknowledged and explored.

I see the same situation in the “anyone but Bush” crowd. There are certainly people who would not be better than Bush, even if you claim to disagree with everything he has done. Neither of these points of view is productive and neither acknowledges any version of reality.

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I almost always find myself in agreement with Jim Earnhardt, and that is certainly true today.

Some contend that voting is the fundamental obligation of citizenship. I do not. Informed voting is the fundamental obligation of citizenship, I would argue, not simply showing up to cast a ballot.

Anybody can pull a lever, push a button, mark a box. There’s more to it than that, or at least there ought to be. Before voting for someone, shouldn’t we know something about that person, about his or her record, his or her proposals for the office sought? If we are to be conscientious citizens, shouldn’t we treat our votes as the precious commodities they are, not as trivial things to be given away lightly, with little regard for what we’re actually doing when we vote?

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A teacher who had finally had enough and spoke out at a school board meeting in Mobile County last night was shut down by the school board, who then adjourned their meeting until 9am this morning, when teachers are in class. The AEA spokesman called it “despicable” and I would have to agree.

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Representative Artur Davis spoke to the Citizens for Constitutional Reform and summed up the controversy over the issue as succinctly as I have seen it:

He told the reform group that Amendment 582 of the state constitution, which voters approved in 1996, and the constitution’s separation of powers, which gives taxing power to the Legislature and not the courts, would block attempts to raise taxes by court order.

“You have to wonder if people on the other side simply do not know that, which is disturbing, since one of them is running to be a justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, or if they know it and they’re simply deciding to raise the issue for whatever divisive purpose,” Davis said.

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Here are the stories I have linked to today at ALHotline.com:

• Birmingham News:State Colleges being made to Justify Budgets
• Montgomery Advertiser:Baxley Deciding Whether to Run
• Tuscaloosa News:State Could See Rise in Provisional Ballots

Don’t forget you can send tips on news stories or links to alhotline@gmail.com

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I’m much more comfortable writing about Alabama politics and I promise to try to stick to what I know, but I must echo what so many people are saying about this election. This presidential election is the most important of my lifetime. We will set the course of the country for much longer than the next four years. If you agree with how the nation has progressed since 2000, then by all means vote for President Bush. But if you believe:

• That the “War on Terror” cannot be won with troops and arms alone.
• That a people cannot be “liberated” by a foreign power.
• That saying we need a “highly qualified teacher” in every classroom and actually having the ability to make it happen are two vastly different things.
• That “family values” is about more than the sex of the person with whom you fall in love.
• That a “culture of life” you think should extend to the unborn certainly should extend to innocent civilians and wrongly convicted murderers.
• That tax cuts cannot always be good, otherwise, why not have no taxes at all? That would really kickstart the economy!
• That we are one America, united, not divided into liberals (”bad”) and conservatives (”good”).
• That health care is a basic human right and it is unacceptable for America to be the only industrialized nation not to ensure that it is available to all.
• That corporations are not what makes America great.
• That we need more Supreme Court Justices like Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas

Then maybe you should consider giving John Kerry your vote. I’m not claiming that John Kerry is a savior, far from it. I disagree with him on many things. However, the points I have outlined are basic tenets of George W. Bush’s beliefs and I guarantee you these things will not change if we give him another four years. At least with John Kerry there is hope.

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I agree with Josh. This says it all:

In a 45-minute speech in Greeley, Colo., today, Bush ignored the news about the missing explosives, Washington Post staff writer Mike Allen reported. Instead, Bush stuck to his stock assertion: “America and the world are safer with Saddam Hussein sitting in a prison cell.”

Evidently Sadaam Hussein was not only not a distraction from the “War on Terror”, he was the whole war. Why doesn’t Bush declare victory over terror, if he can ignore the fact that we allowed 350 odd tons of explosives to be taken from under our noses and used to blow up our soldiers and innocent civilians? The conduct of this war has crossed from the surreal to the downright obscene.

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Great headline from the BBC: Clinton to woo voters for Kerry. Stand aside John, Bill’s wooing. Don’t get any of it on ya’.

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Kos has the latest rundown of newspaper endorsements in the presidential race. Kerry has now gained the endorsement of at least 35 editorial boards who went for Bush in 2000.

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The Birmingham News has a piece on the front page this morning dealing witht he duplication of services in Alabama’s universities and colleges.

That creates a bizarre situation. The state’s per capita expenditure on higher education is among the highest in the Southeast, and yet the individual colleges get less money per student than their regional peers.

Alabama’s median tuition is among the highest in the Southeast, but professors’ salaries at most schools tend to be among the lowest in the region.

How can the state spend so much yet remain so far behind?

A higher percentage of students in Alabama attend public colleges. Other states have more private schools, which help relieve the state of the cost of educating some students. Similarly, private medical schools and research universities such as Vanderbilt, Tulane and Emory take some of the role that in Alabama is played by the state.

To fill a multitude of schools, Alabama imports more students from out of state than any other public system in the Southeast. That spreads the state appropriation over more students.

Multiple schools offer the same degrees. In addition to basic liberal arts offerings, all 16 state universities offer teacher education and business degrees. Thirteen schools offer bachelors degrees in computer science, 11 offer nursing degrees and 10 offer communications degrees.

It’s just one of many bizarre situations in Alabama, and this is another area that needs fundamental reform. Our higher education system is living above its means in terms of the amount of services being offered. This is not an excuse to say we don’t need more money in education, we do, but we also need to streamline the system. What’s preventing it from happening? The Alabama legislature and the educational infrastructure, of course.

**UPDATE: Mac has some thoughts on this too.

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Today at ALHotline.com:

• Atheists Jeer as Monument Hits D.C.
• Fuller,Rogers Spar Over Job Issue
• League of the South Stages Demonstration

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This is the image for someone’s Christmas card (or Hanukah card, or Kwanzaa card, etc.). The setting was the National Mall as a group of believers brought Roy’s Rock to town:

On Friday morning, though, there was a tense debate between a group of atheists from Pennsylvania and the Christians who came to pay their respects to the sculpture. The situation was initially defused by Native Americans in authentic dress who brokered a brief peace, but the U.S. Park Police eventually escorted the atheists to the other side of Madison Drive, where they held signs calling for the separation of church and state.

**UPDATE: Mac thinks the Christian Coalition is really behind these atheist organizations.

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Magpie at Pacific Views points to a valuable election night scorecard at Contrapositive. It’s very well done and should come in handy come November 2.

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If you haven’t seen the “Wolves” ad, you can’t grasp how hilarious the whole debate about it really is. This ad could be the “October Surprise”. Just when things seem to be tilting toward Bush, his campaign may have just shot him in the foot.

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If you have not read the new report “The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters”, you should. It explains so much about the polarization of America we hear so much about. Based on this information, we not be so much polarized in our policy beliefs as we are living in different realities, while holding the same policy beliefs.

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I am now an editor for the Alabama Hotline. I cannot do this one alone. Craig Linton is looking for additional help, as am I to keep this site going. I think it provides a valuable service for condensing the political news of the day in our state. Drop an email to alhotline@gmail.com if you would like to help with this endeavor.

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If you’re looking for something to do in the Montgomery-Autauga-Elmore area this weekend, I highly recommend the Spinners Park Pumpkin Patch in Prattville. It’s right around the corner from my house and I love attending every year. There will be lots of crafts and art to buy as well as good food and entertainment. Come on down!

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Are you registered to vote in this year’s election? Today is the last day to register in Alabama. Get out there and get yourself eligible to vote in a very important election!

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Malfunction Junction will once again earn its designation over the next few months as repairs take place from a tanker truck that destroyed a portion of the bridge at the junction of I-20/59 and I-65 yesterday.

A truck carrying 9,000 gallons of fuel crashed at 6:57 a.m. Thursday, exploding on Alabama’s busiest interstate interchange, warping and destroying a bridge and possibly forcing detours for up to four months. The driver survived unhurt.

Repair work closed the bridge on Interstate 20/59 North at Interstate 65 while up to $4 million in repairs are made. Initial work to demolish the bridge will keep the other lanes of I-20/59 South beneath the bridge closed through the weekend.

Around-the-clock work began immediately. State Department of Transportation officials said the bridge was being torn down so traffic could resume flowing beneath on I-20/59 South before Monday’s rush hour.

The fire’s heat, estimated at greater than 1,700 degrees, was so severe the bridge’s steel girders twisted and stretched, forcing the concrete to buckle in waves. Some of the spilled fuel ran along the interstate into a ravine, burst into flames and burned nearby brush, trees, a lamp post and the columns supporting the bridge.

I know we all are looking forward to Birmingham traffic getting even worse!

UPDATE: My friend Kenny Smith has posted pictures he took of the destruction.

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Here’s Alabama state government for you, the head of Alabama’s Department of Environmental Management was removed from his post this week by the board which oversees the department’s operations. Evidently, no one explained to the board what could happen next. Jim Warr, the man who was terminated, sent a letter yesterday which identified him as the “acting director”. This makes sense to Mr. Warr and head of State Personnel Tommy Flowers, as Warr, upon his removal as director, reverted to his merit position of Deputy Director which then put him in line to become the acting director. However, there seems to be some dispute about whether Warr and Flowers are correct here.

In supporting Warr’s interpretation of succession at the agency, Flowers, the state personnel director, referenced state law on merit employees who accept appointed positions.

A law pertaining solely to ADEM states that when the director’s job is vacant, the deputy director assumes the role of acting director until a permanent replacement is hired by the Environmental Management Commission.

Taken together, those laws mean that Warr is now acting director, Flowers said.

Elliott, who was deputy director until Tuesday afternoon, moves into a new, short-term position that is parallel to her previous job, Flowers said. She will not lose salary, seniority or any other status as a merit employee, according to state law. The new position will disappear when she leaves it, Flowers said.

Two lawyers offered arguments Wednesday that would support Elliott’s claim on the top job.

“I certainly would think it’s possible” that Elliott, and not Warr, would have become the acting director, said Mac McArthur, executive director of the Alabama State Employees Association. “I also think it may be a prevailing interpretation.”

McArthur, who heads the union representing state employees working in most non-education agencies, said Elliott has at least two options to challenge Warr’s hold on the title. She could file a complaint with the State Personnel Board or take the matter to Montgomery County Circuit Court.

Who would have thought environmental management could provide such drama?

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Yep, Alabamians are the fattest.

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Alabama Governor Bob Riley wants unanimity before he calls a special session on health care reforms for public employees. Has anyone ever heard of the phrase “cold day in hell”?

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I knew things were just a little too quiet in Alabama news this morning. The joint is hopping this afternoon. The longtime Director of Voter Registration, Anita Tatum, left her post under pressure from Secretary of State Nancy Worley. I understand that things can stressful in that office this time of year, but I get the impression that Nancy is not a particularly pleasant person to work under.

As counties dealt with the surge of new voter forms, Anita Tatum, director of the State Office of Voter Registration, said she resigned under pressure Tuesday evening. She referred questions to officials at the Alabama State Employees Association.

Executive Director Mac McArthur said Tatum was “a victim of harassment,” and her only choice was to resign or be fired.

“If the secretary of state does not immediately reinstate her, we anticipate litigation,” he said.

Worley said the resignation came after Tatum could not explain discrepancies between the computerized voter registration rolls maintained by Tatum’s office and voter registration statistics posted on the secretary of state’s Web site.

Worley said she plans to name an acting director of voter registration within a day or two, and she expects no problems for the election.

Is it just me or would you have to be crazy to take that job?

**Crossposted at Polstate.com

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Judging by the huge leap in traffic at this site over the last three days, this is what everyone is looking for, a picture of Bill O’Reilly’s accuser:

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Amendment Two is not some sneaky tactic to throw the funding of schools into the courts. The provisions that are being taken out with Amendment Two were all added to the Constitution at the same time and should all go at the same time. They were added to counteract two different Supreme Court rulings and ought to be expunged from constitution. The politics of fear has raised its ugly head again, people are afraid of what might happen if we change something.

When the proposal got to the Legislature in 2003, Rep. Ken Guin, D-Carbon Hill, got it expanded in a House committee to remove the lines saying there is no constitutional right to an education at public expense in Alabama. That language was added in 1956 in response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1954 decision banning “separate but equal” schools.

Both houses approved the revised version without a dissenting vote, but it still must be approved by a majority of voters on Nov. 2 before taking effect.

I also love that the real fear is that a judge might construe that education is a constitutional right in Alabama. Oh the horror! Heaven forbid people have a right to education in this state!

Support Amendment Two on November 2 and for once in our lives, let us overcome the politics of fear.