Polling Methods Have Gaping Hole in Alabama
I’m so glad someone is finally getting the word out on the flaw in the polling numbers, especially in Alabama.
During a Tuesday telephone conference, U.S. Congressman Artur Davis, former Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus, and Mobile County Democratic Chairman Brad Warren said pollsters may have egg on their face after Alabama’s primary, just as they did after South Carolina’s.
Davis said a problem with polling methodology caused pollsters to drastically underestimate the number of white voters who wound up voting for Obama in South Carolina.
“Their first question is, ‘Did you vote in the presidential primary in your state in the last cycle?’,” Davis said. “That question wipes out a lot of people who were new voters, who are attracted to Obama but weren’t attracted to the previous contests.”
He said that is particularly true in Alabama, where in the later June 1, 2004, primary, voters got to decide between candidates John Kerry and Lyndon LaRouche.
“The Democratic race had long been decided,” he said of that primary.
We will have extremely high turnout on Tuesday and there will be tens of thousands of voters who didn’t vote the last time around. Obama’s support is strong in Alabama. I won’t predict a victory, but if he doesn’t win, it will be very close.
montgomeryadvertiser.com :: Pollster methods flawed, Obama supporters believe