The World Around You

6:17pm (CST): The Political Wire reports:

Exit polls conducted by the television networks and Associated Press point to close races in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas. Large numbers of independent voters voted in the Democratic primaries. Overall turnout very high. Expect results late in the night.

6:19pm: Obama and McCain take Vermont.

6:26pm : Marc Ambinder says the margin in Vermont may make it the most important state of the night:

Vermont will allocate 10 delegates based on the vote at the congressional district level and award 3 to the winner of the state.

In all likelihood, Obama’s delegate margin from Vermont will allow him to end this election night having earned a net of between six and ten delegates.

After the euphoria of potential Clinton popular vote victories in Ohio and Texas fades after 48 hours, the only number that will ensure… will be Obama’s delegate margin in Vermont.

6:34pm: The polls will remain open in Ohio until 9pm, due to inclement weather. It will be a VERY late night.

8:53pm: McCain is officially the Republican nominee. Rhode Island belongs to Hillary. Texas and Ohio are still too close to call…

Based on my reading of reports and the tea leaves today it appears that the series of events the Obama campaign expected to occur today WERE:

1. Obama wins the popular vote and delegate race (convincingly) in Texas, and either wins or loses Ohio by a hair.

2. They announce he raised $55-60 million dollars last month.

3. They announce he has received 50 new superdelegate commitments (thank you Tom Brokaw).

4. The combination of 1,2, and 3 would be the equivalent of a knockout blow to the Clinton candidacy.

The problem is that #1 doesn’t look like it’s going to happen…so what do you do with 2 and 3? The fundraising numbers have to come out, but do you announce the superdelegate commitments all at once, or let them trickle out over the course of the next few weeks?

It will be a very interesting evening, but an even more interesting next 3-5 days.

My prediction, strap in for the long haul…Senator Obama is going to lose both of the big prizes tonight (popular vote, he may still get the majority of delegates in TX). The press finally has something negative to latch onto (and its his fault) and that is allowing Hillary to get some positive coverage (SNL and The Daily Show appearances were perfectly timed).

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton has retaken a narrow lead over rival Sen. Barack Obama in Texas, 47% to 44%, and has deadlocked the race in Ohio, 44% to 44%.

The American Research Group poll in Texas has Clinton leading Obama, 50% to 47%. In Ohio, Clinton leads 56% to 42%.

The Belo Texas Tracking Poll shows Clinton edging Obama, 46% to 45%.

Final Polls — Political Wire

Regular readers know I am a pragmatist and I believe the fact that Obama’s economic advisor sat down with the Canadian government is in and of itself a problem, no matter what he said. He is not yet the nominee, nor is he the President. Furthermore, what reason could there have been to meet, other than to explain how he was making “campaign rhetoric”, not policy. What happened to the different kind of politics you’ve been selling us Senator Obama? This sounds like the same old politics to me. Bait and switch…I don’t like it, and you’d better fess up and denounce it pretty quick.

“Noting anxiety among many U.S. domestic audiences about the U.S. economic outlook, Goolsbee candidly acknowledged the protectionist sentiment that has emerged, particularly in the Midwest, during the primary campaign,” a consulate staffer wrote, according to AP. “He cautioned that this messaging should not be taken out of context and should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans.”

Obama’s campaign said that Goolsbee described his remarks as being mischaracterized in the Canadian memo. And Stephen Harper, the conservative Canadian prime minister, denied opposition party questioning that accused him of trying to sabotage Obama’s campaign. Harper told the House of Commons that the government, through its embassy in Washington, indicated “its regret at the fact that information has come out that would imply Sen. Obama has been saying different things in public than in private” on NAFTA.

Since the flap began last week, Goolsbee has not responded to calls from the Tribune for comment, and the campaign did not make him available Monday.

Barack Obama takes heat over NAFTA memo, Rezko — chicagotribune.com

A new report from the Pew Center on the States gave Alabama state government an improved grade. They acknowledged that some of the items where we scored low are beyond the governor’s control, and the legislature tried to jump on that as an excuse for them too.

But State Sen. Hank Sanders, chairman of a Senate budget committee, said the report’s major complaint was also beyond the Legislature’s control.

He said Alabama’s budgeting process is different from most states because so much of the state’s tax revenue is set aside by state law and the constitution for specific purposes, which leaves the Legislature little discretion, said Sanders, D-Selma.

Hank! This is why we need a new constitution! It is not beyond the legislature’s control to give the people the right to decide a new constitution, and a new constitution can address the earmarking problem. That is one of the pillars of why Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform was assembled, but we still have yet to get the opportunity to vote on a constitutional convention.

montgomeryadvertiser.com :: State government better, but still has problems