Swing State Project: Moves two AL Races More Likely Democratic

Swing State Project moved two of our Alabama races one position more Democratic on their rankings and Alabama’s 3rd is now on the watch list. It will take some new polling numbers to move AL-03 up even further on the radar, and it’s not an easy district to poll. My strong suspicion is that Josh Segall is only narrowly behind Mike Rogers at this point, and will continue to close on Rogers over the rest of the summer.

# AL-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Republicans may have gotten their preferred choice for this race in state Rep. Jay Love, but he was battered heavily in a divisive primary against Wiregrass-area state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. Democrat Bobby Bright’s campaign smartly went up with a bio ad in Dothan, his birthplace, this past Wednesday in an effort to sway Smith supporters. Bright will likely have the airwaves largely to himself for a short period – at least while Love refills his coffers from the expensive and nasty primary. Love, who shares a geographic base with Bright, still has a clear edge in this R+13 district, but it is no longer a commanding one.

# AL-05 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Republicans were initially quite giddy when longtime Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer retired, leaving his R+6.5 district for the taking, but candidate recruitment and fundraising are tilting the landscape in northern Alabama back to the Democrats. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, significantly out-raised Republican Wayne Parker in the last quarter. Coupled with a divisive Republican runoff that drained Parker’s reserves, Griffith now holds a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this traditionally Democratic district. Griffith has been airing ads portraying himself as a statesman ready to fill the chair of Bud Cramer, and most observers agree that he is a cut above Parker, who lost this district twice in the ’90s.

Swing State Project:: SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (7/22/08)

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