This is one of the more conservative estimates I’ve seen in recent days, which probably means it’s more realistic:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI (42 electoral votes)

Marginal toss-ups: FL, NH, WI, PA, OH, NE 2 (73 electoral votes)

True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE 1, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (141 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 184 electoral votes

Tossups: 115 electoral votes

The Atlantic Electoral Map October 7 Reskin Edition – Marc Ambinder.

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