Another “Can Davis Win?” Column

I got to read yet another “Can Davis Win?” column this morning, this time in Politics Daily. The answer is YES, YES, YES, for crying out loud. Will he win? Who knows…but there is no doubt in my mind that he CAN win. I enjoyed this column though, because it did a very balanced job of presenting what’s going on, though I disagree with some of the conclusions.

First we have to talk about the Democratic primary. Davis can certainly beat Ron Sparks head-to-head, no one seems to have much doubt about that (again not saying he WILL, just that he can). I still believe there will be a third candidate, but we shall see who that may be. Once Davis clears that hurdle, he will have to craft a strategy based on who is opponent is. Obviously he would run a very different campaign against Bradley Byrne than against Tim James or Roy Moore. the success or failure of that strategy will depend much more on the political mood of the country in the fall of 2010 than it will on Davis himself. If President Obama’s approval ratings haven’t tanked and Davis doesn’t end up having to defend the President, he improves his chances dramatically. The more Davis can make the race about who HE is the better his chances get. There is no doubt that there is 30-40% of the electorate who will NOT vote for a Democrat, no matter what his race, and an almost equal number who wouldn’t vote for a Republican. So any candidate is already working a narrower playing field in the middle, but there are 20% of the Alabama electorate who are persuadable in any given election. Those are the voters he needs to be working now through election day.

I hope his campaign is well-prepared to deal with the attacks that will come, and has the tools to identify those voters who will listen to his message and make a decision based on who he is rather than their perception of the party he belongs to. I also hope he doesn’t get pulled into attacking his opponents and his able to highlight differences without getting nasty (though the temptation is great).

Politics Daily – Can Artur Davis Win in Alabama?

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