Nate Silver made a point yesterday in passing that was very interesting to me. He was countering an argument by Chris Bowers that Bowers isn’t really concerned about the expected loss in seats at the mid-term for Democrats. As always, Nate goes to the numbers and shows that the seats that are most vulnerable would be quite a loss, because even in those seats, the majority of Representatives voted for the key bills this year (Healthcare, the Climate bill and the Stimulus). No surprise to regular readers, Alabama Democratic Representatives Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith were 0-for-3 on those proposals.
The interesting passing point is that Bright and Griffith are two of a minority of only 14 Blue Dogs on the vulnerable list (there are 53 members of the Blue Dog Democrats)…and that has more to do with their being freshman than it does with their being Blue Dogs. Nate goes on to make a point that some of my progressive friends would do well to think on…
[T]he Blue Dogs do not in fact vote as a block bloc; most are pliable to one degree or another on at least some progressive priorities, if unreliable on others. Are the bills that emerged from the House as strong as progressives were hoping for? Certainly not. But I fail to see how Peolsi compromised any more than she basically needed to, or how the bills would have become stronger if you’d replaced these Democrats with Republicans.
Sure, the ConservaDems are annoying. But they represent only a minority of those under electoral pressure. And this approach to getting rid of them is a bit like solving your termite problem by burning your house down.
I have repeatedly made the point that as frustrating as Bright’s and Griffith’s votes have been to many Democrats, there is no question the alternative would have been worse. Obviously, repetition is not going to convince anyone, but perhaps reinforcements will aid the argument.
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NEW TWAY Blog Post: Bright and Griffith Among Most Vulnerable Blue Dogs in ‘10 http://j.mp/7Y92os #alpolitics #p2
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Chris,
What amazes me is how people do not understand the politics of a vote. This happens on the right and the left. When the Dems vote on heath care and cap and trade, Pelois has calculated which Dems will vote for and against. She know Bright, Griffith, and Davis can’t vote for these. In return they will be there for the party in other ways. I’m sure this happened with Newt as well. The bottom line is, every controversial vote will be by the thinnest of margins, and loaded with bribes, er pork.
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Joseph,
You bring another interesting angle on the argument…we aren’t used to seeing any representative buck their party in Alabama. Yes, the same thing happened when Republicans were in the majority, but we never saw it here, because our Republican reps were not of the moderate variety.
Alabama Democrats expected much more than was ever going to be possible if they have any intention of holding these seats for more than one term. As evidenced by the fact that both are still in danger against strong competition, even when they voted against the president’s key legislation.
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The problem is that instead of people voting “for” Griffith and Bright they simply will not vote.
I do not see Griffith retaining his seat.
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I think a bigger problem for both of the Gentlemen lies in the fact Barack Obama is not on the ticket to energize their base. Republicans are very energized to get back as much as they can so I believe there is a very good chance Mr. Davis will be THE Alabama Democratic Representative.
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