If the results of yesterday’s primary run-offs in Alabama confirmed nothing else, they confirmed that we live in an upside down world in Alabama politics. Two months ago, everyone knew that Artur Davis and Bradley Byrne would be competing as the respective nominees of their parties for governor. Everyone was wrong. Artur Davis lost the Democratic primary to state agriculture commissioner Ron Sparks on June 1st. Everyone knew going into that primary that Bradley Byrne and Tim James would be in a run-off for the Republican nomination. Everyone was wrong. Robert Bentley was the surprise candidate who barely slipped into the run-off over Mr. James. Everyone knew that Bradley Byrne would emerge victorious over Dr. Bentley. Everyone was wrong.And the upside down world isn’t just in the governor’s race. Everyone knew two months ago that in the Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional District Earl Hilliard Jr. would be in a run-off with Terri Sewell or Shelia Smoot for the nomination. Everyone was wrong. Mr. Hilliard was left on the outside of a Sewell-Smoot run-off. Everyone knew going into yesterday that Shelia Smoot would defeat Terri Sewell. Everyone was wrong.
Yes, Alabama voters do like to turn conventional wisdom on its head, but we aren’t crazy. There are times when things don’t get turned on their head, for good reason. Martha Roby is the Republican nominee in the 2nd Congressional District, despite efforts from Rick Barber to upset the apple cart. Mo Brooks and Steve Raby are the nominees in the 5th Congressional District, despite challenges from others who wanted to pull a surprise.
But, for better or worse, Alabama has a history of giving candidates who, when the campaign began were given slim odds of success, a chance to make their mark. And they will do it again in the governor’s race. But how? Will they turn conventional wisdom on its head and elect a Democrat as governor or will they surprise by sticking with a Republican for another four years? Stay tuned, Alabama will continue to be one of the most fascinating states in the country when it comes to politics and we’ll be here to keep you in the know.
What are your reactions to last night and predictions for the upcoming races?
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RT @TWAY_Kris: NEW TWAY Blog Post: Hello Governor Sparks – The Upside Down World of #alpolitics http://bit.ly/cyX17b #alvote
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Just glad the run off is over, the Byrne/anti-Byrne ads were a great reason to watch the Weather Channel. As to what happens next, I expect will o’wisp orgs to pop up run an ad or three, carpet-bomb the net, some nasty legislative races, glove dropping moments will be if the Supreme Court ok’s a Victoryland raid or the Federal Grand Jury adjourns with or with out indictments. This maybe the closest we get in Alabama to a clash of ideology (however weak it maybe) but maya is but an illusion, only the Naam is true.
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[...] are in shock after the end of the 2010 primary season. Almost everyone who was expected to win ended up losing. The Republican primary especially was shocking, after barely making the runoff Robert Bentley went [...]
Is the Govenor Sparks headline your prediction? The most shocking thing I found about the election was the dismal turn-out. 17%. Bentley winning was a surprise but he had momentum going in. Smoots losing is not really a surprise if you follow her antics in birmingham and the danger they have of defaulting on their bonds.
Good article all around tho Kris
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The headline comes from the fact I said three days after the election on Dale Jackson’s radio show in Huntsville that Ron Sparks was “dead in the water” and Dale agreed, which in Upside Down world means…Hello Governor Sparks.
No doubt Bentley had momentum, and the PSA/Baselice polling was quite accurate.
Thanks Louie.
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