My Election Predictions
Well, since everyone else seems to be getting in on the act, here are my election predictions:
PRESIDENT
Popular Vote: Kerry 50 Bush 49 Nader 1
Electoral College:
Kerry: CA (55), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), IL (21), MA (12), MD (10), ME (4), MI (17), NJ (15), NY (31), OR (7), PA (21), RI (4), VT (3), WA (11), WI (10)
Bush: AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), AZ (10), CO (9), GA (15), ID (4), IN (11), KS (6), KY (8), LA (9), MS (6), MT (3), MO (11), NC (15), ND (3), NE (5), NM (5), NV (5), OK (7), SC (8), SD (3), TN (11), TX (34), UT (5), VA (13), WV (5), WY (3)
Giving each candidate the states he is most likely to win right now, brings us to Kerry at 234 and Bush at 232, with 6 states still outstanding. These are not necessarily the ones everyone thought we would have at this point (Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio), but here we are. No one can say with certainty how anything is going to fall, but here is how I see it.
I find it extremely difficult to believe that Bush is going to pull out Hawaii, based on a long history of strong Democratic support there and very little effort on Bush’s part to change that trend. On the flip side, I find it very plausible that Bush can pull out a victory in Iowa because he has put in the effort. So that gives each side one more state and gives Bush a one EV lead.
Though it did buck the trend in New England in 2000, I just don’t see New Hampshire doing it again this year. The polling looks good for Kerry and I will put NH in his column.
That leaves Florida, Minnesota, and Ohio. Kerry can take any two out of the three and win, but Bush does not win in every two out of three scenario. If Bush takes Minnesota and Ohio, while Kerry takes Florida, then we have the dreaded 269-269 scenario. Now Bush most likely wins here, but you have all kinds of things that can happen (i.e. rogue electors, back-channel deals in the House, etc.). My call? Kerry takes Ohio and Minnesota, while Bush takes Florida.
That makes my EV prediction Kerry - 272 Bush - 266. Have at it.
ALABAMA SENATE
Richard Shelby (R ) - 89%
Wayne Sowell (D) - 11%
UPDATE:
- James Joyner has it Bush - 286 Kerry - 252 (and has a pretty comprehensive list of other predictions)
October 31st, 2004 at 11:44 pm
Do you really think Shelby will get that wide a margin? I would think Sowell would get a slightly larger amount by getting most or all of the minority vote (because he’s a Democrat, that is, not because he’s a minority). I would have thought more than 11% of voters would vote a straight Demo ticket, too. Maybe not.
What galls me most about the state congressional elections, though, is that in my district (#6), we don’t even have a Democrat to oppose Spencer Bachus.
November 1st, 2004 at 7:35 am
Yes, I do think he will win big. There may be more than 11% that will vote straight Democrat, but there are a lot of people that will make an exception in this race. Shelby got 63% of the vote last time and I would be surprised if he doesn’t at least break 80 this time around.
November 2nd, 2004 at 7:37 pm
Scenes from a Polling Place
My polling place had the longest lines I’d seen in my 4 years of voting there (including the 2000 elections). The sweet old ladies were already looking fatigued, and this was at 9:00 am. As I was soon to learn,
November 4th, 2004 at 2:02 pm
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My Electoral Prediction Revisited
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