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They call them swing voters for a reason. Anzalone-Liszt Research has conducted a survey of 92 Frontline, Blue Dog and rural districts across the country and came up with some very interesting results.
· Strong majorities of these voters want reform and want it this year. There is still strong support for reforming the healthcare system, as 59% of voters in these districts – which are slightly more conservative than the electorate overall – favor major reform or a total overhaul of the current system. They also want reform now, as over 60% believe that it is important to pass health insurance reform this year, including 64% of swing voters (those who do not side with either party in the generic ballot and who make up 28% of voters in these districts) and 93% of Democrats.
· Once voters learn about the plan, a majority supports it. As we’ve seen in earlier polling and focus groups, voters are largely unaware of any benefits of reform beyond expanding coverage for the uninsured. The vast majority of voters who already have coverage therefore don’t see how reform will help them. After hearing about some of the benefits of the plan however, support for it among voters overall increases from 42% to 51%. Swing voters were particularly receptive to information about the plan, with their level of support rising from 35% to 50% after learning more about it.
· Ensuring coverage for pre-existing conditions and requiring members of Congress to have the same plan as tens of millions of Americans are the most compelling components of reform. These two components were seen as the best reasons to support health insurance reform, both when tested on their own and as messages. They are the most popular components of reform among voters overall, and also among key audiences, including seniors. Although these were the most popular components of the plan, fourteen others were also tested, and each was supported by at least 60% of both swing voters and voters overall.
· A majority of swing voters still say they need more information about the plan before taking a firm position on it. Despite all the debate over health insurance reform over the past year, 40% of likely voters in these districts – and 55% of swing voters – say that they need more information on the President’s reform plan before they can take a firm position on it. Meanwhile, those voters who have made up their mind on the plan lean Republican by a 20-point margin.
· Swing voters are just as concerned about continued insurance company abuses as they are about any potentially negative consequence of reform. Over two-thirds of swing voters (67%) werevery concerned that premiums would continue to rise in the absence of reform, and 62% were similarly worried about insurance companies continuing to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions. These concerns were equal to or even greater than the level of fear over reform’s impact on the deficit, taxes or government involvement in healthcare.
They use this information to conclude that people are still so undecided on this issue in these districts, that a majority of support is still possible in any particular district, even at this late date.
Is it really possible that 4 out of 10 people in these districts need more information? And after well over a year of debate, whose fault is it they don’t have the information they need? There’s always so much talk about information overload these days, and yet there are still folks who completely shut themselves off to it.
There are many things that frustrate me about the healthcare debate, but not seeking out information tops the list. I’m not sure who frustrates me more, those who have an opinion with no information or those who have information but still don’t have an opinion. Both are terrible circumstances and I wish we saw less of them. Ideally, everyone would agree on the facts and have an opinion, one way or the other, based on those facts. But so many times, and the debate over healthcare reform is a prime example, we end up with arguments over the facts instead of arguments over why the facts are good or bad for the country. I respect people who differ with me in their opinion, but have just as many facts and just as much evidence to support their position as I do. However, I have no patience for those who have an opinion but have no sound reasoning behind it.
So, if you aren’t informed about what the healthcare proposals contain, I would highly advise you check out the Kaiser Family Foundation’s site for some impartial, fact-based analysis. And there are a wealth of other resources out there, but read with a critical eye, no matter what you’re reading. Finally, for goodness sake, take a side and know why you believe what you believe.
UPDATE: Mooncat at Left in Alabama has some thoughts on these numbers as well.
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