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Something to Consider about Artur Davis and Healthcare Reform

I found some interesting data today that backed up a suspicion I had, and I thought I would take the opportunity to share it.  The suspicion came from some of my progressive friends who have been arguing that Congressman (and gubernatorial candidate) Artur Davis is somehow abandoning the needs of poor people in his district by promising to once again vote against healthcare reform.

Let me preface by saying, I am 100% in favor of passing the healthcare legislation that the President is recommending, which runs closer to the bill that passed the Senate than the one that passed the House, but eliminating some of the “giveaways” the Senate included.  And there are many, many important provisions of the legislation that have nothing to do with getting more people insured.  However, the idea that Rep. Davis’s district somehow needs this legislation more than other parts of the country because he represents so many poor people is a bit misguided.  Why?

Poor people have insurance!  It’s called Medicaid.  It isn’t perfect, but it’s not the poor that are losing out the most in the system that we have, that honor belongs to the almost poor and those who have pre-existing conditions, amongst other groups.  The U.S. Census Bureau offered the data I was interested in to try and back this up.  No doubt, there are many Americans who don’t have insurance, and many of them are poor.  The map below shows the percentage of people who are under age 65, below 200% of poverty and uninsured by county:

In case you need it, here is a map of the congressional districts of Alabama to overlay in your mind:

Notice that the LOWEST percentage of poor uninsured Alabamians are in the counties of the 7th congressional district (Clarke, Choctaw, Wilcox, Dallas, Perry, Hale, Greene, Sumter, Tuscaloosa, Perkins and Jefferson).  And which counties have the highest percentage of poor people without insurance?  Baldwin, Shelby and Lee counties…extremely interesting to my eyes.  What could explain why poor people who live in three of the richest counties in the state don’t get the same level of insurance as people in other parts of the state?  I honestly don’t have any idea, but it surprised me and would be interesting to explore further.

I’m not saying this is the final word on what is best for the 7th congressional district, but when you combine these facts with the fact that Rep. Davis continues to maintain that the vast majority of people who contact his office are opposed to the legislation, some of the criticism I see of the congressman’s position are not based in reality.  I don’t maintain that people don’t have the right to criticize or that reasonable people can differ on how the congressman should vote, but I do maintain you should have some facts to back up your assertions.

Your thoughts are appreciated below.

Campaign Ad-apolooza – Byrne, Davis, Bentley, Ivey

Robert Bentley is up with his first campaign ad:

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Artur Davis’s first ad is called “Alabama First:

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Kay Ivey has this:

Kay Ivey Video from Kay Ivey on Vimeo.

 

And, finally, Bradley Byrne’s latest, focused on jobs:

[youtube]_SkksQUVAoA[/youtube]

 

 

Latest Social Media Poll Results and Updating the Twitter Scorecard

The latest TWAY poll results are in.  This time, the question we asked was “Which gubernatorial candidate is running the most effective online campaign?”  Our completely unscientific (but still interesting) results are:

Bradley Byrne 33%

Artur Davis 28%

Tim James 20%

Bill Johnson 9%

Ron Sparks 6%

Roy Moore 2%

Robert Bentley 1%

Kay Ivey 1%

James Potts <1%

I also wanted to check-in once again with some objective numbers (and subjective analysis) on the use of social media by the candidates for Alabama governor.  Let’s look at the number of Facebook “fans”, Twitter “followers” and You Tube “subscribers”.

[gdocs type='spreadsheet' st_id='0AnkbXmhwgbPIdENFcDkwcHhPdXRBU1JCd0Nka2VCVFE' wt_id='od6']

We last visited the usage of Twitter by candidates in December.  While the number of pieces of information flowing on Twitter have changed quite dramatically, there is still a key piece of what social media is all about missing, interaction.  While there is now much interaction between surrogates (including campaign staff) and the general public, there is still very little to no interaction from the candidates themselves.  We receive assurances that most if not all of the candidates are now producing their own tweets (which I still find suspect), but few questions are being answered or posed from those accounts.

As I did in December, I looked at the results from Twitalyzer, which is an application that provides a way to score your impact in the Twitter universe.  Here is how the candidates shake out (with their December scores in parentheses):

@ArturDavis: 3.4 (1.8)

@Bradley Byrne: 1.6 (1.4)

@TimJames2010: 1.5 (0.9)

@Moore2010: 1.5 (0)

@Bentley2010: 0.9 (0.1)

@TeamJohnson2010: 0.5 (0.9)

@KayIvey: 0.4 (0.5)

@RonSparks2010: 0.3 (0.2)

Congressman Davis continues to expand his lead over the field by this measure, almost doubling his score from December.  Roy Moore made the next biggest move, followed by Rep. Bentley, then Tim James and Bill Johnson.  Kay Ivey and Ron Sparks actually regressed since December.  From my own experience with following these accounts, I once again believe this objective measure to coincide with my subjective opinion of what is happening.  I am impressed with the engagement of the James campaign on social media, and their use of it in getting out their message.  I still believe Davis’s apparatus has been superior, but the gap is closing.

Financial Reports in for Alabama Governor’s Race

Well, the remaining financial reports in the Alabama governor’s race came out today, and it was a bit of a frenzy keeping up and there has been a good bit of debate over exactly where we stand.  One measure to look at is contributions:

Bradley Byrne  $2,605,011

Artur Davis  $2,174,110

Tim James $1,360,632

Ron Sparks $656,188

Roy Moore $379,880

Robert Bentley $144,067

Kay Ivey $87,019

Bill Johnson $80,405

Another way to look at the numbers is to look at total receipts (this includes loans from the candidate themselves and others):

Bradley Byrne $2,713,474

Artur Davis  $2,182,168

Tim James $2,060,632

Kay Ivey $1,861,105

Ron Sparks $1,264,688

Robert Bentley $931,067

Roy Moore $388,880

Bill Johnson $120,405

And finally the one that most of us agree is the “bottom line” to begin 2010, cash on hand:

Tim James $2,618,733

Bradley Byrne $1,824,610

Kay Ivey $1,560,896

Artur Davis  $1,391,023

Ron Sparks $836,095

Robert Bentley $733,254

Roy Moore $145,068

Bill Johnson $56,895

Here is a graphic representation put together by Stephen Gordon of the second and third numbers for each candidate (except Tim James, where Stephen included the $2 million Tim James loaned himself in 8/2008 in his total raised, if only so that it didn’t look like he had more cash on hand than he raised).

Now there is a good bit of “funny money” in play here.  Almost all of Kay Ivey’s and Robert Bentley’s is their own, almost half of Ron Spark’s and Tim James money as well.  Those dollars do not necessarily demonstrate anything in terms of voter support, but a dollar is a dollar when you need it to run a campaign.  You also have the $1 million that Artur Davis rolled over from his congressional campaign (no differently than then Congressman Bob Riley did when he ran in 2002).

On the Republican side, my overall assessment is that Byrne and James have separated themselves from the pack.  Some folks thought Roy Moore might come out strong, as he did in 2006, but that did not occur and his campaign looks to be DOA, along with that of Bill Johnson.  Robert Bentley and Kay Ivey could still play the role of spoilers, provided they are really willing to spend the dough they put out on the reports.

On the Democratic side of things, it’s a little more complicated.  Ron Sparks did some magical dollar shuffling of his own to appear as strong as possible in this report, while Artur Davis likely still has quite a bit left in the tank in the fundraising department.  However, Davis is also burning through funds at a higher rate than some of the other candidates.  He will have to continue to raise at a substantial clip to keep up with that burn rate.  Still, the numbers Davis posted help strengthen his front-runner status over Sparks.

I’m interested in your take on the numbers below.