Polls

What is your preferred method to balance the Alabama education budget?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Blog Rating

Average blog rating:

9.4

368 votes cast for 233 posts

Latest Social Media Poll Results and Updating the Twitter Scorecard

By TWAY Kris

The latest TWAY poll results are in.  This time, the question we asked was “Which gubernatorial candidate is running the most effective online campaign?”  Our completely unscientific (but still interesting) results are:

Bradley Byrne 33%

Artur Davis 28%

Tim James 20%

Bill Johnson 9%

Ron Sparks 6%

Roy Moore 2%

Robert Bentley 1%

Kay Ivey 1%

James Potts <1%

I also wanted to check-in once again with some objective numbers (and subjective analysis) on the use of social media by the candidates for Alabama governor.  Let’s look at the number of Facebook “fans”, Twitter “followers” and You Tube “subscribers”.

[gdocs type='spreadsheet' st_id='0AnkbXmhwgbPIdENFcDkwcHhPdXRBU1JCd0Nka2VCVFE' wt_id='od6']

We last visited the usage of Twitter by candidates in December.  While the number of pieces of information flowing on Twitter have changed quite dramatically, there is still a key piece of what social media is all about missing, interaction.  While there is now much interaction between surrogates (including campaign staff) and the general public, there is still very little to no interaction from the candidates themselves.  We receive assurances that most if not all of the candidates are now producing their own tweets (which I still find suspect), but few questions are being answered or posed from those accounts.

As I did in December, I looked at the results from Twitalyzer, which is an application that provides a way to score your impact in the Twitter universe.  Here is how the candidates shake out (with their December scores in parentheses):

@ArturDavis: 3.4 (1.8)

@Bradley Byrne: 1.6 (1.4)

@TimJames2010: 1.5 (0.9)

@Moore2010: 1.5 (0)

@Bentley2010: 0.9 (0.1)

@TeamJohnson2010: 0.5 (0.9)

@KayIvey: 0.4 (0.5)

@RonSparks2010: 0.3 (0.2)

Congressman Davis continues to expand his lead over the field by this measure, almost doubling his score from December.  Roy Moore made the next biggest move, followed by Rep. Bentley, then Tim James and Bill Johnson.  Kay Ivey and Ron Sparks actually regressed since December.  From my own experience with following these accounts, I once again believe this objective measure to coincide with my subjective opinion of what is happening.  I am impressed with the engagement of the James campaign on social media, and their use of it in getting out their message.  I still believe Davis’s apparatus has been superior, but the gap is closing.

March 6th, 2010 | Tags: , , , , , , , , | Category: Politics | 7 comments

Financial Reports in for Alabama Governor’s Race

By TWAY Kris

Well, the remaining financial reports in the Alabama governor’s race came out today, and it was a bit of a frenzy keeping up and there has been a good bit of debate over exactly where we stand.  One measure to look at is contributions:

Bradley Byrne  $2,605,011

Artur Davis  $2,174,110

Tim James $1,360,632

Ron Sparks $656,188

Roy Moore $379,880

Robert Bentley $144,067

Kay Ivey $87,019

Bill Johnson $80,405

Another way to look at the numbers is to look at total receipts (this includes loans from the candidate themselves and others):

Bradley Byrne $2,713,474

Artur Davis  $2,182,168

Tim James $2,060,632

Kay Ivey $1,861,105

Ron Sparks $1,264,688

Robert Bentley $931,067

Roy Moore $388,880

Bill Johnson $120,405

And finally the one that most of us agree is the “bottom line” to begin 2010, cash on hand:

Tim James $2,618,733

Bradley Byrne $1,824,610

Kay Ivey $1,560,896

Artur Davis  $1,391,023

Ron Sparks $836,095

Robert Bentley $733,254

Roy Moore $145,068

Bill Johnson $56,895

Here is a graphic representation put together by Stephen Gordon of the second and third numbers for each candidate (except Tim James, where Stephen included the $2 million Tim James loaned himself in 8/2008 in his total raised, if only so that it didn’t look like he had more cash on hand than he raised).

Now there is a good bit of “funny money” in play here.  Almost all of Kay Ivey’s and Robert Bentley’s is their own, almost half of Ron Spark’s and Tim James money as well.  Those dollars do not necessarily demonstrate anything in terms of voter support, but a dollar is a dollar when you need it to run a campaign.  You also have the $1 million that Artur Davis rolled over from his congressional campaign (no differently than then Congressman Bob Riley did when he ran in 2002).

On the Republican side, my overall assessment is that Byrne and James have separated themselves from the pack.  Some folks thought Roy Moore might come out strong, as he did in 2006, but that did not occur and his campaign looks to be DOA, along with that of Bill Johnson.  Robert Bentley and Kay Ivey could still play the role of spoilers, provided they are really willing to spend the dough they put out on the reports.

On the Democratic side of things, it’s a little more complicated.  Ron Sparks did some magical dollar shuffling of his own to appear as strong as possible in this report, while Artur Davis likely still has quite a bit left in the tank in the fundraising department.  However, Davis is also burning through funds at a higher rate than some of the other candidates.  He will have to continue to raise at a substantial clip to keep up with that burn rate.  Still, the numbers Davis posted help strengthen his front-runner status over Sparks.

I’m interested in your take on the numbers below.

February 1st, 2010 | Tags: , , , , , , , , | Category: Alabama, Politics | 5 comments

Wife of Candidate for Governor Resigns Post in Riley Administration

By TWAY Kris

I have received confirmation from multiple sources that Kathy Johnson, the wife of Alabama gubernatorial candidate and former ADECA Director Bill Johnson, has resigned her position as Director of the Alabama Broadband Initiative and Connecting Alabama in the administration of Governor Bob Riley.  This announcement is sure to reduce the discomfort within the administration and for the Johnson campaign as the candidate tries to outline his differences with the current administration and other candidates in 2010.

UPDATE: The Birmingham News has spoken to Ms. Johnson and confirmed she submitted her resignation yesterday and her last day will be January 15th.

UPDATE 2: The Montgomery Advertiser adds text from her letter to the Governor,

“Thank you for the opportunity to organize, launch and advance your statewide broadband effort,” she wrote. “We have seen enormous successes since its inception in May 2008.”

 

January 5th, 2010 | Tags: , , | Category: Politics | 6 comments

Poll Results: When the Alabama Governor’s Field Shrinks, Who Will Be Out?

By TWAY Kris

As we enter 2010, there are nine candidates for Alabama governor in the two major parties:

Democrats:  Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks and U.S. Rep. Artur Davis

Republicans: State Treasurer Kay Ivey, State Representative Robert Bentley, Former Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court Roy Moore, Former Chancellor of the Two-Year College System Bradley Byrne, Former ADECA Director Bill Johnson, and Tim James (son of former Governor Fob James)

I conducted a poll on this site over the last two weeks to determine which candidates people though might be out of the race within the next couple of months.  Certainly (as with all online polls) the results are not scientific, but interesting nonetheless.  Let’s start with who is LEAST likely to be leaving the race soon:

I am certainly in agreement with my readers that these candidates will still be around come March, and most likely through the primary in June.  Next on the list, 18% of those polled believed that all of the candidates will stay in the race (not very likely to my mind).

And my short list of candidates I don’t believe will be around for the primary is the same as you (I love it when we agree),

  • Kay Ivey is facing more challenges with the latest decision on the PACT program, though she continues to have the ability to self-fund her campaign, if she so desires.  21% of TWAY voters believed she will be out by March.
  • Robert Bentley has been an interesting candidate to watch, but there is little indication that he has gained much traction in either attention or money for his campaign.  26% of voters thought we will be saying good bye to Bentley soon.
  • James Potts has not been taken particularly seriously as a candidate, and this poll continues to demonstrate that fact.  32% of voters in the poll believed Potts will not remain in the race.

I thank everyone for voting and encourage you to vote in all our future surveys.  As always, your comments are welcome below.

January 2nd, 2010 | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | Category: Alabama, Politics | One comment
 
  Older Entries »