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We know our educational system in Alabama isn’t what we want it to be and our literacy and dropout rates in particular are terrible.  What do our candidates have to say about it?

Robert Bentley

Under a section on his website entitled “Improving Education” we see these ideas from Dr. Bentley,

o I support maximizing local authority providing increased flexibility to school boards to set their own curricula and try innovative methods of teaching to increase student performance;

o I will ensure that every teacher across Alabama has adequate supplies and state-of-the-art technology to nurture and teach their students;

o I will work to ensure that classroom sizes are manageable, propose new after school tutoring initiatives and fine arts education, and fully fund K-12 and Pre-K education;

o I will reduce Alabama’s dropout rate by directly targeting the highest risk students;

o I will propose pilot programs to evaluate the best way to compensate teachers based on classroom performance, while accounting for differing conditions within our school system;

o I will demand that Alabama’s public colleges and universities put their spending priorities in order and ensure that funding for, and spending by, Alabama’s public colleges and universities will be completely transparent and made available to the public via the Internet;

o On February 10, 2010, I voted in the House Education Appropriations Committee to fully fund the PACT program because our state has a moral and a legal obligation to honor the contracts purchased by Alabamians;

o On February 10, 2010 I voted to indefinitely postpone consideration of the charter school bill because it was inadequate and needed improvement. 

Dr. Bentley spoke about his thoughts on education, charter schools and the PACT program here,

Bradley Byrne

Chancellor Byrne offers what he calls his LEAP Ahead Plan for Alabama Educational Excellence.  The highlights include,

We must reform our education system, and we will begin with sweeping tenure reform. Our schools need to be rid of laws that protect the incompetent and hinder the advancement of teachers who are performing well. Tenure laws in their current form are a barrier to the education of our youth, because they allow people who are unqualified to teach our children.I believe we should also pass reforms that will allow us to reward our best teachers for the excellent work they do by paying teachers based on their performance. It’s beyond me how anyone can argue that it makes sense to pay our best, highest performing teachers off the same salary matrix used to compensate the teachers who are more concerned about making it to retirement than making a difference in a child’s life. There are far more good teachers than bad. Alabama is blessed with many fantastic educators who give their hearts and souls to a job that they consider a true calling. They deserve more from us; and by rewarding them for their outstanding work, those who are less motivated may well be inspired to give more in the classroom.

I believe Alabama parents deserve choices and opportunities. It is not right on any level that parents are locked into systems that fail our children. Our state should join the legion of other states in America that have good laws allowing the creation of charter schools. As the father of four children who attended public schools, a former member of the Alabama Board of Education and a former senator, I have long been a proponent of bringing school choice to Alabama. I strongly believe that charter schools will better serve the children and families of this state in many ways. They will provide greater educational options for our students, give parents the right to choose the school that best suits each child’s needs, put our education tax dollars to more productive use, incentivize school and teacher performance excellence, and create higher standards for discipline and character development.

Education budgeting requires immediate reform. Our method of budgeting and funding has not changed since 1995. Budget reform will require a state legislature that is willing to take on the entrenched interests and fight for real change. In all facets of education, we must focus on the real needs of the classroom, and not focus on satisfying the insatiable demands of the Alabama Education Association. Unless our legislators commit to writing sound, responsible budgets that are based upon realistic revenue assessments, as opposed to ill-advised special interest demands or wishful thinking, our students and teachers will be forever at the mercy of inadequate, prorated budgets.The time has come for serious discussions, hard work and a commitment, once and for all, to our children and to their ability to succeed in the world before them. Our children are our future, and we have let them down long enough. We have proven, fair, workable, cost-effective and innovative education options right at our fingertips, and it’s time to use them. As governor, I will do just that.”

Mr. Byrne talks about education here,

Artur Davis

Rep. Davis has focused on dropout prevention and the PACT program when he discusses education,

Alabama’s drop-out rate has consistently been among the worst in America.  Davis knows the status quo is not a viable solution to improve public schools in Alabama. He understands that well before high school, too many kids begin to lag behind their peers in their basic cognitive abilities. That’s why he will expand an array of programs that strengthen early childhood development.   Davis believes pre-Kindergarten, afterschool programs and character education are critical to providing students with the support they need to succeed at an early age.

The mandatory attendance age needs to be raised to 18, and our current policy of suspending the driver’s licenses for drop-outs needs a no-exception, no excuses standard. Click here to read Artur Davis’ plan to prevent drop-outs and keep Alabama children in school.

Because our children are just as likely to be competing for a job with a child from Taiwan as they are a child from Tennessee, Davis will renew Alabama’s commitment to science and math education to better prepare our children for the jobs of the 21^st Century. Davis does not fear reform and will join President Obama in supporting charter schools that can introduce innovation to education in communities around our state.

And Davis believes that money should never be a reason to keep young people out of college.  That’s why he’ll fulfill the legal & moral commitment to families and individuals who invested in Alabama’s PACT program and ensure that every dollar invested is protected. He will also end the days of Alabama ranking at the bottom when it comes to the amount of state assistance to moderate and low income college students. Click here to watch a video of Artur Davis discussing Alabama’s legal & moral obligation to PACT families.

Rep. Davis spoke on education in front of an AEA audience last year,

Tim James

Mr. James offers “Common Sense Solutions for our Schoolchildren”

1. Every Alabama child will read by the third grade

Reading mentors for every child in Alabama who needs one. Tim will call it the “Alabama Reading Corps.” The goal is to fortify existing reading programs while empowering Alabama universities to develop and manage the college student mentors to help primary school children to read.

2. Every Alabama student who works hard will have an opportunity for an Alabama college education

Before anyone outside Alabama is recruited, we’ll give every hardworking Alabama high school student who graduates with at least a B average and an acceptable ACT score, a slot to attend an Alabama college. Not a scholarship, but an opportunity. And, tuition for public post-secondary education will not exceed the rate of inflation to ensure tuition remains affordable.

3. Our most challenged schools will be brought up to the highest levels

Inside every excellent school you’ll find an excellent school principal. Tim will give principals major new decision-making authority – and financially reward those who succeed. Substantial rewards that will make Alabama’s school system a sought-out location for America’s brightest educators. He’ll also provide meaningful pay incentives for good teachers to work in our lowest performing schools.

4. Every Alabama K-12 student WILL have access to a computer

Emulate states like Tennessee, Kentucky and Ohio that have developed ways to update surplus state computers for school children. Possibly retooled by prison inmates, giving them a marketable skill that will be augmented with the governor’s office targeting private foundations for grants to expand the program.

Bill Johnson

ACCESS Distance Learning

One of my priorities in the area of education is the expansion and improvement of the Alabama Connecting Classrooms, Educators and Students State-wide (ACCESS) Distance Learning program. At ADECA, I invested millions of dollars in ACCESS because I fully believe connecting students to education through distance learning will be the great equalizer for our youth. ACCESS allows students in more rural areas to take courses not available to them locally via video conferencing and web-based applications.

My commitment is to  also continue the Alabama Math, Science and Technology Initiative (AMSTI). This program provides intensive assistance to our schools and promotes the teaching of math and science courses. Alabama has transformed into an industrial and high-tech economic powerhouse.  In order for our children to take advantage of these high-growth, high-wage positions, they need to have education and training to meet the high-tech demands.

HIPPY

Many of our children lag behind in school because they didn’t have the benefit of a good start during their formative years.  The Home Instruction for Parents of Preschool Youngsters (HIPPY) works with parents of our youngest citizens to help them understand the importance of the early development of a child’s mind. At ADECA, I supported the expansion of this program to a number of new counties.  It will be my commitment as governor to bring this great program to parents in all 67 counties.

Drop-out Prevention

One of our greatest challenges is encouraging Alabama’s youth to stay in school. Only 59% of our high school students graduate.  A study last year concluded that the average Alabamian earns $5,800 less each year than the average American and attributes 60% of this gap to lower education levels.

The reasons youth drop out are numerous, but we need to recognize that not every child has a goal of obtaining a college education. Some either don’t see the relevance of post-secondary ed or can’t afford the cost of ever-increasing tuition.  I believe there is an opportunity to lower the drop-out rate by identifying at-risk youth early and transitioning them into dual-enrollment technical training courses at local community colleges.

Mr. Johnson offered this on providing stable and adequate funding for education,

Roy Moore

(To his credit, since the first post in this series, Judge Moore has offered bullets on the main areas of concern to our state)

Merit pay should be a reward for good teachers.

Reduction in the education bureaucracy and removal of waste and corruption in the educational system.

Parents must continue to control the education of their children and local school boards should receive greater authority over administrative matters.

Ron Sparks

Commissioner Sparks believes an education lottery is needed in Alabama,

State lotteries are educating the children of Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida. Every year Alabamians spend millions on these lotteries to help educate the children of other states.  A LifeStart lottery will make sure that Alabama dollars educate Alabama children.

You want to hear something frightening?  About 21,000 9th grade students in this state will not get a high school diploma.  Every year 21,000 kids enter the 9th grade who will not graduate.

And for many who do graduate, higher education is just a dream that costs too much.   College tuition in Alabama is increasing at more than twice the rate as the average family income.

It is tragic that so many talented young people drop out of school.  It is equally tragic that the dream of a better future is just too expensive for so many.  That’s why, as Governor, I’ll fight to create the LifeStart Scholarship Lottery program.

Every high school student with a “C” or better average will be guaranteed a scholarship to a public Alabama University, two year college, or technical program of their choice.  All others who graduate or earn a GED will be guaranteed a technical or trade education.

LifeStart scholarships will also provide funding for apprenticeship programs in both union and non-union craft training facilities.  Whether a child wants to be a PhD or pipefitter, LifeStart scholarships will make their dreams a reality.

You want to make a difference in Alabama?  LifeStart Scholarships will lower dropout rates, improve the quality of our workforce, and create hope for future generations.

Mr. Sparks discusses education funding and charter schools here,

Please offer your comments and thoughts on this issue or the candidates positions below.

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I plan to tackle: The Economy and Jobs, Education, Ethical Government, and State Spending and Revenue.  These are the most pressing issues our state faces and that the state has the greatest ability to directly affect.

ISSUE #1  The Economy and Jobs

Obviously, as with the rest of the country, Alabama is in the process of recovering from a recession and we need to find ways to create jobs and get people back to work.  What do our candidates for governor have to say on that subject (in alphabetical order)?

Robert Bentley

Rep. Bentley has a plan published on his website called, “Putting Alabamians Back to Work” that includes the following,

• Keep Alabama a “Right to Work” state
• Overturning annual property tax valuations
• Opposing “Cap and Trade”
• Incentives for new and existing businesses that expand or re-hire employees
• “The Reemployment Act of 2010″ (which he was able to get passed through the legislature this past session)
• Preserving affordable and accessible healthcare by promoting at the federal level (a little unclear what influence a governor would have here): portability of insurance across state lines, tax deductions for the self-employed, tort reform, changing Medicaid funding formula to states, increase Medicare reimbursement to doctors and hospitals
• Preserving affordable and accessible healthcare at the state level:

Rep. Bentley was able to get his “jobs” bill through the legislature this past session, which he discussed here,

Bradley Byrne

Chancellor Byrne has published on his website a “New Jobs for a New Alabama” plan that includes:

• Job creation tax credits
• A healthcare premium tax deduction
• A tax credit for research and development
• A small business regulatory advisory council and a small business advocate
• Making healthcare affordable and accessible for all Alabamians (while opposing the recently passed federal legislation)
• Expanding Alabama’s career tech programs
• Strengthening the state’s Office of Workforce Development
• Employing long term strategic planning for the state’s regional Workforce Development Councils
• Creating “Opportunity Awareness” among our future employees
• Encouraging Alabama’s “best and brightest” to remain in the state after graduation
• Reforming K-12 education: including tenure reform, teacher salary flexibility, charter schools and dropout prevention programs

Last year, Mr. Byrne talked about the importance of economic development:

Mr. Byrne has received the endorsement of the Alabama Retail Association, and during that announcement he discussed his jobs plan:

Artur Davis

Rep. Davis offers an outline of his plan (along with a more detailed description) on his website:

1. Growing Alabama Businesses and Getting the Economy Moving
   • A flexible and efficient New Job Tax Credit
   • Expanding small business lending
   • Rewarding existing Alabama companies
   • Increasing the availability of venture capital to boost startups and bring new products and ideas to market.
2. Building the Industries of the Future
   • Launch an Alabama Biotech Commercialization (ABC) Corporation
   • Capitalize an Alabama Aerospace and Aeronautics (AAA) Fund
   • Provide “innovators” tax credits
   • Found the Advancing Rural Energy in Alabama (A.R.E.A.) Initiative
   • Expansion of offshore and deepwater exploration
   • Clearing the way for nuclear power in Alabama
3. Building a Modern Infrastructure
   • Building a 21st century communications infrastructure.
   • Creating a Town Square Initiative
   • Speeding up the use of transportation dollars to create jobs now.
4. Investing in Alabama Workers
   • Institute a Smarter Start program.
   • Provide a state tuition tax incentive for working adult students
   • Create a demand-driven system that trains workers for the jobs employers need
   • Institute Lifelong Learning Accounts (LiLA)
   • Help working families cope by providing a new child tax credit for parents

Mr. Davis also posted the video of the press conference where he announced the plan,

Tim James

Tim James offers  “Common Sense Solutions for Jobs and Economic Development” on his website.

1. Give Alabama small businesses the same incentives for growth that are used to recruit out-of-state companies.

2. Capture Alabama’s Renewable Energy “Mother Lode.”

3. Deploy Internet Broadband statewide.

4. Roads and bridges for all of Alabama.

5. Revive Alabama’s “ghost towns.”

Mr. James held a press conference in Birmingham to discuss his economic development plan,

Bill Johnson

Director Johnson, who was head of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) before he left to run for governor, offers this on economic development in a press release on his website,

1.  Assemble an Economic Recovery Advisory Team

2. Create a Bond and Financing Oversight Commission

3. Clear the Backlog of Work Opportunity Tax Credit Applications

4. Alabama to Go (Growing Alabama’s Exports)

5. Develop Broadband and High Speed Internet

6. Provide Financing for Distressed Businesses through the EB-5 Visa Program

7. Recapitalize Revolving Loan Fund Programs of the Regional Planning Commissions

8. Complete and Continue Science and Technology Roadmap for Alabama

9. Stimulate Entrepreneurship by Expanding the Alabama Launchpad Program

10. Aid Distressed Inner Cities with Alabama Land Bank Authority

11. Task the Office of Faith and Community-based Initiatives to Engage Alabama’s Faith Community to Provide Assistance to Distressed Families

(I could find no specific video where Johnson is discussing his economic development plan.)

Roy Moore

Former Chief Justice Moore offers this video on his issues page to describe his approach to the economy.  The only specific proposal I could identify was to repeal the annual re-appraisals for property tax valuation.

Ron Sparks

Ron Sparks has no prominent mention of the economy on his website.  However, I did find this video that is headlined as his “Plan for Economic Development”,

The video goes along with this press release, which discusses Sparks’s belief in developing a thriving casino gambling industry as a means of economic development.

I hope people will find this post a resource throughout the campaign season and I welcome comments from advocates and representatives of the candidates to offer more about the specific proposals their candidates have advocated (with links if possible).

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Yet, while campaigns seem to be fully grasping the “media” component of social media, they still don’t seem to get the “social” part.  Interaction is the key to social media, and most campaigns are still treating these tools as yet another outlet to push out their message.  I will give credit to the campaigns who agreed to Twitter interviews with Jeff Vreeland (@jvreeland) and to those that have conducted live web chats with the Anniston Star.  I hope to see more evidence of interaction between the campaigns and their followers on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the final weeks of the primary.

Having said that, each campaign has done an admirable job of increasing the number of people they can expose their message to on a daily basis, as evidenced by the increase in Facebook “fans” and Twitter “followers”.

Facebook Fans (In order of percentage increase from the previous month):

Bill Johnson       2368   +79%

Robert Bentley 1560   +60%

Bradley Byrne   6123   +51%

Ron Sparks         1952    +21%

Artur Davis       12855  +13%

Tim James           3546  +10%

Roy Moore         6857   +3%

Twitter Followers (In order of percentage increase from the previous month):

Bradley Byrne                 1373  +25%

Robert Bentley               1016   +14%

Ron Sparks                         520   +11%

Tim James                        1338   +6%

Bill Johnson                    1028    +5%

Artur Davis                     3230    +4%

Roy Moore                      6113     +0.5%

As we have examined before, there are other metrics available to look at how a Twitter account is used, as opposed to a simple count of followers.  For consistency, I am continuing to use Twitalyzer as my tool for analysis and it bears out what I have witnessed first hand, the surge of activity from Bentley and the former leaders in social media interactiveness coming back to the pack:

Twitalyzer Rating (by difference from last month)

Robert Bentley   1.1        +0.2

Ron Sparks           0.3        +0.1

Bill Johnson        0.5        +0

Tim James           1.4          -0.1

Bradley Byrne     1.1        -0.5

Artur Davis           2.7      -0.7

Roy Moore           0           -1.5

I am also following all of the candidates You Tube channels and monitoring the interest there as well.  None of the channels have a significant number of subscribers but here are the numbers in terms of “views” (as of April 11th)

You Tube Views (by channel)

Artur Davis            14,448

Bradley Byrne       10,812

Roy Moore               9,789

Robert Bentley       4,236

Tim James                3,216

Bill Johnson             2,153

Ron Sparks                   950

What we saw this month is candidates who had been a little behind in the social media wars making up ground, so that Robert Bentley and Bill Johnson are now becoming players in the arena, where they may not have been before.  This also comes through in the poll results here at The World Around You.  When we asked our readers who was running the best social media campaign right now, we got these (unscientific, but still interesting) results:

Robert Bentley  64% (174 votes)

Bill Johnson        12%  (33 votes)

Artur Davis           8%  (22 votes)

Bradley Byrne     7%  (18 votes)

Tim James            5%  (14 votes)

Roy Moore           3%  (8 votes)

Ron Sparks           2%  (5 votes)

James Potts         0%  (0 votes)

And once again, I would almost completely agree with this as the order for how Alabama gubernatorial candidates have done with social media over the last month (if the percentages are a bit out of whack).  I see real effort from the Bentley and Johnson campaigns in engaging with their online supporters.  I see Davis, Byrne and James maintaining and increasing their fans and followers.  And I see Sparks and Moore bringing up the tail-end of the pack.  That may be by design as social media may not be an important part of their communication strategies, but it is certainly what I see.  In fact, there was a significant period of the month where we saw very little social media activity from the Sparks campaign, and there hasn’t been much activity at all from Roy Moore up to this point.

So, if we want to call this my “power rankings” for social media, I would put Davis first, followed closely by Byrne, then a hard-charging Robert Bentley, Tim James, Bill Johnson, Ron Sparks and Roy Moore, with the whole list tightening substantially over the last month.  I don’t mean for these analyses to say anything about what will or won’t happen from the election standpoint, but it will be interesting to see if it does.  Social media is already playing a role in shaping the story line of this election, we have yet to see whether it will play any significant role in the result.

What do you think about the candidates’ use of social media so far?  What do you think it means for the 2010 election?  Comment below.

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Bradley Byrne 33%

Artur Davis 28%

Tim James 20%

Bill Johnson 9%

Ron Sparks 6%

Roy Moore 2%

Robert Bentley 1%

Kay Ivey 1%

James Potts <1%

I also wanted to check-in once again with some objective numbers (and subjective analysis) on the use of social media by the candidates for Alabama governor.  Let’s look at the number of Facebook “fans”, Twitter “followers” and You Tube “subscribers”.

We last visited the usage of Twitter by candidates in December.  While the number of pieces of information flowing on Twitter have changed quite dramatically, there is still a key piece of what social media is all about missing, interaction.  While there is now much interaction between surrogates (including campaign staff) and the general public, there is still very little to no interaction from the candidates themselves.  We receive assurances that most if not all of the candidates are now producing their own tweets (which I still find suspect), but few questions are being answered or posed from those accounts.

As I did in December, I looked at the results from Twitalyzer, which is an application that provides a way to score your impact in the Twitter universe.  Here is how the candidates shake out (with their December scores in parentheses):

@ArturDavis: 3.4 (1.8)

@Bradley Byrne: 1.6 (1.4)

@TimJames2010: 1.5 (0.9)

@Moore2010: 1.5 (0)

@Bentley2010: 0.9 (0.1)

@TeamJohnson2010: 0.5 (0.9)

@KayIvey: 0.4 (0.5)

@RonSparks2010: 0.3 (0.2)

Congressman Davis continues to expand his lead over the field by this measure, almost doubling his score from December.  Roy Moore made the next biggest move, followed by Rep. Bentley, then Tim James and Bill Johnson.  Kay Ivey and Ron Sparks actually regressed since December.  From my own experience with following these accounts, I once again believe this objective measure to coincide with my subjective opinion of what is happening.  I am impressed with the engagement of the James campaign on social media, and their use of it in getting out their message.  I still believe Davis’s apparatus has been superior, but the gap is closing.

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Bradley Byrne  $2,605,011

Artur Davis  $2,174,110

Tim James $1,360,632

Ron Sparks $656,188

Roy Moore $379,880

Robert Bentley $144,067

Kay Ivey $87,019

Bill Johnson $80,405

Another way to look at the numbers is to look at total receipts (this includes loans from the candidate themselves and others):

Bradley Byrne $2,713,474

Artur Davis  $2,182,168

Tim James $2,060,632

Kay Ivey $1,861,105

Ron Sparks $1,264,688

Robert Bentley $931,067

Roy Moore $388,880

Bill Johnson $120,405

And finally the one that most of us agree is the “bottom line” to begin 2010, cash on hand:

Tim James $2,618,733

Bradley Byrne $1,824,610

Kay Ivey $1,560,896

Artur Davis  $1,391,023

Ron Sparks $836,095

Robert Bentley $733,254

Roy Moore $145,068

Bill Johnson $56,895

Here is a graphic representation put together by Stephen Gordon of the second and third numbers for each candidate (except Tim James, where Stephen included the $2 million Tim James loaned himself in 8/2008 in his total raised, if only so that it didn’t look like he had more cash on hand than he raised).

Now there is a good bit of “funny money” in play here.  Almost all of Kay Ivey’s and Robert Bentley’s is their own, almost half of Ron Spark’s and Tim James money as well.  Those dollars do not necessarily demonstrate anything in terms of voter support, but a dollar is a dollar when you need it to run a campaign.  You also have the $1 million that Artur Davis rolled over from his congressional campaign (no differently than then Congressman Bob Riley did when he ran in 2002).

On the Republican side, my overall assessment is that Byrne and James have separated themselves from the pack.  Some folks thought Roy Moore might come out strong, as he did in 2006, but that did not occur and his campaign looks to be DOA, along with that of Bill Johnson.  Robert Bentley and Kay Ivey could still play the role of spoilers, provided they are really willing to spend the dough they put out on the reports.

On the Democratic side of things, it’s a little more complicated.  Ron Sparks did some magical dollar shuffling of his own to appear as strong as possible in this report, while Artur Davis likely still has quite a bit left in the tank in the fundraising department.  However, Davis is also burning through funds at a higher rate than some of the other candidates.  He will have to continue to raise at a substantial clip to keep up with that burn rate.  Still, the numbers Davis posted help strengthen his front-runner status over Sparks.

I’m interested in your take on the numbers below.

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UPDATE: The Birmingham News has spoken to Ms. Johnson and confirmed she submitted her resignation yesterday and her last day will be January 15th.

UPDATE 2: The Montgomery Advertiser adds text from her letter to the Governor,

“Thank you for the opportunity to organize, launch and advance your statewide broadband effort,” she wrote. “We have seen enormous successes since its inception in May 2008.”

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Democrats:  Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks and U.S. Rep. Artur Davis

Republicans: State Treasurer Kay Ivey, State Representative Robert Bentley, Former Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court Roy Moore, Former Chancellor of the Two-Year College System Bradley Byrne, Former ADECA Director Bill Johnson, and Tim James (son of former Governor Fob James)

I conducted a poll on this site over the last two weeks to determine which candidates people though might be out of the race within the next couple of months.  Certainly (as with all online polls) the results are not scientific, but interesting nonetheless.  Let’s start with who is LEAST likely to be leaving the race soon:

• Tim James only received 1 vote in the poll
• Ron Sparks (even with the events of the past week) only got 4 votes
• Artur Davis, only 5
• Bradley Byrne and Roy Moore, only 6

I am certainly in agreement with my readers that these candidates will still be around come March, and most likely through the primary in June.  Next on the list, 18% of those polled believed that all of the candidates will stay in the race (not very likely to my mind).

• Bill Johnson was chosen by 18% of those who voted.  I believe this was likely wishful thinking by some who Johnson is making uncomfortable with his accusations against the current governor.

And my short list of candidates I don’t believe will be around for the primary is the same as you (I love it when we agree),

• Kay Ivey is facing more challenges with the latest decision on the PACT program, though she continues to have the ability to self-fund her campaign, if she so desires.  21% of TWAY voters believed she will be out by March.
• Robert Bentley has been an interesting candidate to watch, but there is little indication that he has gained much traction in either attention or money for his campaign.  26% of voters thought we will be saying good bye to Bentley soon.
• James Potts has not been taken particularly seriously as a candidate, and this poll continues to demonstrate that fact.  32% of voters in the poll believed Potts will not remain in the race.

I thank everyone for voting and encourage you to vote in all our future surveys.  As always, your comments are welcome below.

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It has also been posited that Bill Johnson is not running to win, but instead will be rewarded for damaging Byrne, both with campaign contributions and future employment from a future Tim James administration.  While there is no way to prove this (though it may only grow more apparent with time), I think it’s also worthwhile to point out that Johnson had other choices in campaign strategy that may have panned out better for him.

Governor Riley has tried to laid claim to achievements in education, ethics reform and economic development during his two terms.  Bradley Byrne has predictably (and quite credibly) laid claim to being his successor on the first two because of his work in cleaning up the two-year college system.  However, his connection to economic development is a bit more strained.  Bill Johnson, on the other hand, has been a part of almost all the major economic development initiatives of the Riley administration from his work at the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs.  He also has been a strong leader on the Governor’s Faith-Based Initiative as well as his efforts in the Black Belt.  Johnson certainly talks about these efforts on the campaign trail, but this talk has been obscured (by his own design) with the flames from the bridge he’s burning to the previous administration.

Unfortunately, it seems that Johnson didn’t believe going toe-to-toe with Bradley Byrne would produce a win, he needed a different strategy.  He still has a chance to pull a rabbit out of his hat (i.e. being the second place candidate in a four or five-way race), but the chance gone from slim to almost none with the strategy as it has played out so far.  Now if an investigation does begin and something is produced from it, then he will look like a very smart man, but I don’t know any Alabama political observer who believes that is what the future holds.

Bill Johnson does have a flair for theatre, so I expect we are seeing the end of the first act, and that act two will likely keep us entertained as well.  Whether that means he will gain any ground in the governor’s race is to be determined.

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Twitter Followers:

Roy Moore (@Moore2010): 4,384

Artur Davis (@ArturDavis): 2,711

Tim James (@TimJames2010): 1,062

Bradley Byrne (@BradleyByrne): 704

Bill Johnson (@TeamJohnson2010): 551

Robert Bentley (@Bentley2010): 447

Kay Ivey (@KayIvey): 343

Ron Sparks (@RonSparks2010): 302

Wow what a lead for Roy Moore…but I did a little research, using a tool called Twitter Counter I looked at the number of followers daily going back three months.  There is a weird anomaly on October 7th where Moore went from 2,589 followers to 4,270 followers overnight!  Wow!  That’s incredible!  And he has almost no growth before that leap or since.  Does that seem fishy to anyone else?  Would it help if you knew that there are marketing services that will sell you followers?  You see more natural growth patterns for all of the other candidates on the list.

While that scorecard may give us some idea of their popularity, it tells us nothing about effective they have been in using the tool to inform and collaborate with supporters.  Thankfully there are some applications out there that let us compare that as well.  I turned to one called Twitalyzer which looks at the influence a particular user has on the overall landscape and came up with these results:

@ArturDavis: 1.8

@BradleyByrne: 1.4

@TeamJohnson2010: 0.9

@TimJames2010: 0.9

@KayIvey: 0.5

@RonSparks2010: 0.2

@Bentley2010: 0.1

@Moore2010: 0

For comparison purposes yours truly (@TWAY_Kris) pulls a 3.8, Governor Riley (@GovernorRiley) pulls a 1.4, and Attorney General Troy King (@TKtheAG) is a 0.1 on this scale.  So while Roy Moore has a huge follower advantage, he’s saying very little to that large following (there’s evidence most of them wouldn’t be listening even if he did), and what he is saying isn’t having any influence across the Twitter universe at large.  From my own observations, I believe this Twitalyzer ranking is very close to the way I would rate how well each campaign is using Twitter to spread their message.

I’ll say what I’ve said many times before, social media isn’t about the tools as much as it is about how you use them to connect with real people.  None of the campaigns are very effective with the interaction yet, but I see signs that they are trying.  I will offer other observations on the use of other tools in the near future.

As always, your comments are welcome below.

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Sebastian Kitchen does an excellent job in the Montgomery Advertiser this morning laying out where we currently are in the controversy over bingo machines in Alabama.  The most recent development was a letter that Governor Riley sent to state legislators in response to a letter they received from Randy Brinson of the Christian Coalition of Alabama.  Brinson’s letter said, in part,

 The most important point is that even if the Alabama Supreme Court rules in such a way that electronic bingo is found to be illegal, as long as paper bingo is allowed, the Indians will be allowed to continue their gaming operations thereby creating a monopoly for the Indians. This is very settled in previous federal case law.

And Riley responded,

make no mistake … the claim that our enforcement of Alabama’s anti-gambling laws in the Alabama Supreme Court will guarantee exclusive rights to Indian casinos is a bald-faced lie.

It seems like there is a fundamental disagreement, between the Governor and Attorney General Troy King, go figure, over some documents and procedures laid out by the federal government.  A lawyer who specializes in gambling issues also sides with King and says the Governor is wrong on the law, that if any Class II gambling is allowed (which includes traditional paper bingo) than all Class II gambling is allowed for tribal entities.  In other words, under the Indian gaming act, the recent ruling from the Alabama Supreme Court really has no impact on those gaming establishments.

You add to this the additional layer that former Riley administration official and candidate for governor Bill Johnson passed a polygraph this week around his claims that the governor took significant contributions from the Mississippi Choctaw Indians (a claim the Governor has strongly denied) and we have a real political firestorm continuing to build.  Is the governor really only interested in eradicating all slot machines?  Is he planning to raid Victoryland and the Indian casinos next?

If so…things are fixing to get mighty, mighty interesting and there won’t be much time on local news broadcasts or the local papers to talk about anything else.  That would be extremely unfortunate for our state and its people.  While gambling is deeply concerning to some Alabamians, there are many other important issues we should investigating and discussing as well.

Your comments are welcome below.

UPDATE:  TWAY regular commenter waltm says over on Doc’s Political Parlor simply, It’s On.

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The other Democrat in the race, Artur Davis, supports religious displays of all faiths on government property and non-denominational prayer in schools.  However, he also did not directly answer the questions on whether the bible is literally true or his beliefs on evolution vs. creation, instead saying “I am a Christian who believes that the Bible is divinely inspired and that the evolution of our planet was shaped by a divine God whom I worship.”

Bradley Byrne did prove to be the odd man out of the Republican crowd, if only marginally so.  He was the only Republican who said there are parts of the Bible intended to be taken literally and parts that aren’t.  He also was one of three Republican candidates (Bill Johnson and James Potts were the others) who expressed a belief in evolution, but evolution with god behind it.  And taking those beliefs together, he runs (not surprisingly, to this observer) very close to Rep. Davis in this area.

It will be interesting to watch the race moving forward to see if these differences are exploited in any way by the candidates.  I’d put my money on the Davis campaign using Sparks’s non-response against him at some point, as yet another example of the Agriculture Commissioner wanting to have it both ways.  I don’t see the Republican candidates using their religious beliefs against each other, but as there hasn’t been much friendly fire on that side of the fence yet, I doubt anyone would pretend to know for sure.

As always, your comments are welcome below.

UPDATE:  One of the contributors at Left in Alabama thinks Sparks gave the “courageous” response.  Well, that’s certainly another interpretation.

UPDATE 2: Joe Openshaw has yet another perspective on this:  “None of those views comes as a surprise, but admitting that Christians pick and choose which parts of the Bible to believe ironically makes Byrne the most believable.”

UPDATE 3:  Brian at Flashpoint also has an angle on this story.

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Sparks responded by stating that he would pay for the gas to drive Artur over for a meeting with Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and ask him if he would give up any of his casinoes.  The Agriculture Commissioner and Congressman Davis’s lone opponent in the Democratic primary also got in the shot of the night by claiming that “If I bring one job to Selma that will be one more than Congressman Davis has in seven years.”  I believe the line to be patently false (based on my own knowledge of what Congressman Davis has done to bring resources to community organizations in the Black Belt), and expect the campaign to confirm as much, but still a good jab from Mr. Sparks.

I expect the exchanges tonight to simply increase the rancor between the two campaigns.  The only chance Sparks has is to pummel Davis with charges that he has no plan to raise revenue or he’s trying to hide whatever the plan is until after he’s elected.  And Davis has no choice but to respond with challenges to Sparks own veracity, lest he look weak, the classic dilemna.

On the Republican side, Bradley Byrne once again showed himself to be the most moderate voice of the group, talking about the need for a new constitution (but not a convention) and how to get rid of the grocery tax (without increasing other taxes).  Bentley, Johnson and James all continued to emphasize their conservative credentials and attempted to outflank each other on almost every issue, though there were many moments of consensus as well. 

No candidate faltered in any noticeable way, but the questions that were asked were also quite softball, nothing unexpected at all.  But I cannot wait until the campaign responses come out tomorrow, stay tuned…

Your comments and thoughts are welcome below.

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1% – Roy Moore

2% – each to Bill Johnson, Kay Ivey and Robert Bentley

4% – Ron Sparks

8% – Tim James

22% – Artur Davis

and congratulations to the winner:

60% – Bradley Byrne

Obviously, this is a completely unscientific poll, but they are still a lot of fun.  I will be releasing the next poll soon and keep an eye out whenever you visit in the upper right of the page for your next opportunity to have your voice heard.

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http://www.twitter.com/TWAY_Kris
http://www.twitter.com/michelle_cc
http://www.twitter.com/derektrotter
http://www.twitter.com/lenorev
http://www.twitter.com/brentbuc

However, I will give you my impressions of each candidate, as this was my first time seeing any of them in campaign mode. From left to right on the stage in front of me:

Dr. Robert Bentley (state representative and physician) – I had been told I would be impressed, and I was certainly impressed with some of Rep. Bentley’s ideas. He offered some very cogent responses and offered solutions to most of the issues that he was asked to address. I still think he’s way off base on Health Savings Accounts and gambling, but he had some good responses on education and economic development. I would say he was certainly in my top 3 tonight.

Bill Johnson (former ADECA Director) – I really prefer not to comment on Bill, as he’s someone I have a history with…but I will say that he tried to bring up every facet of his background in the brief debate, perhaps to de-emphasize his connection to Governor Riley a little and seem more independent. He also seemed to have the least support from the audience of the candidates on stage tonight (both from stickers on lapels and by applause during the debate).

Tim James (businessman, son of former Governor Fob James) – Tim had his entourage there early and in full effect, he certainly had the most materials and the most visible supporters early in the evening. In terms of content, he wanted everyone to know he’s “not a politician” and he came back to his central theme of reading being the core of education so many times, that he began to sound like a broken record. In fact, I watched Artur Davis’s face as he started out addressing the dropout problem and then pivoted into how early reading was the solution to that too. He seemed to be selling early reading as a silver bullet, much like Ron Sparks is selling the lottery. However, I did find myself nodding when he talked about the importance of school principals and a program to incentivize getting good principals into poor-performing schools, a position with which I strongly agree.

Artur Davis (US Congressman, lone Democratic candidate on the stage) – Artur started out asking people to be nice to him because his mother-in-law was in the crowd. He was a little evasive on a question about gambling, but also emphasized where he believed some of his positions were coming from a place of belief in moral right and wrong. The only president he mentioned was Reagan and the only governor was Riley (both in a positive light). He also was the only candidate to support the need for a new constitution, which certainly made him stand out. Otherwise, I think he did his best to agree with his Republican colleagues where he could, again pulling out Byrne in particular as someone with whom he agreed on more than one issue.

Bradley Byrne (former State School Board Member and Two year College Chancellor) – Byrne was very much emphasizing the things he was able to do in cleaning up the two year college system, using it in both his answers to economic and education questions. I also think he took a very thoughtful approach to a question on the prison system and how to deal with first-time non-violent offenders as a moral issue. I believed going in that if I had to choose a Republican in the race, it would be him, and I came out even firmer in that belief.

Roy Moore (former Chief Justice) – I came off surprised by Roy Moore more than any single candidate, because I really thought I would despise everything the man had to say, but in the end, he didn’t go over the top on religion and has obviously toned down his rhetoric even for a Christian Coalition crowd. I do think he was obviously weak in the areas of education and economic development, but he also got some of the bigger applause lines of the night. I came out believing that if he had just a little more depth on the issues and a finer tuned messages he could be a very competitive candidate, as frightening as that is to many.

Format and Audience – I thought the audience was very respectful throughout to all of the candidates and there were no outbursts or disruptions of any kind. The panel was quite diverse and the topic areas covered were as well. The audience was able to get a feel for each of the candidates and that was good. Lenora Pate stood out on the panel of questioners, as all of her questions had multiple parts and were extremely wide in scope. But the candidates handled even those questions with grace, and for the most part were able to communicate their messages while still being responsive the issue.

Overall, I came out pretty much where I started in terms of my favored candidates (Davis and Byrne), but with a deeper appreciation for the points of agreement I have with some of the others (particularly Bentley). I’m glad I attended and got to meet a lot of good folks while I was there as well.

UPDATE: 1. Lost in Montgomery has a more comprehensive play-by-play of the evening

2. Kate offers some more entertaining takes on the debate here

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I worked for Bill (but didn’t report to him directly) while he was Assistant Director and for a brief time after he moved up. I certainly have my opinions about him, but I’ll keep them to myself for the time being. There is no doubt he is a smart guy and his wife is very connected as well.

.

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You may remember that