Rep. Bobby Bright released some polling numbers to the Montgomery Advertiser that appeared in today’s edition. The numbers are from respected pollster John Anzalone, and he does offer caveats about what they mean, acknowledging the low name ID for Bright’s opponents and how far from election day we are. Still, there is a lot of positive here for Rep. Bright. His favorability rating is 68% for a Democrat sitting in a Republican-leaning district, that is pretty amazing, but given the current political climate it is darn near incredible. His job approval also stands at almost 70% and his disapproval rating is only 25%. If he can keep his numbers at those levels, he is going to be extremely tough to beat. People don’t generally vote out a congressman they think is doing a good job, no matter who the opponent is. I would expect this poll will cause his opponents to invest heavily in defining Bright as a failure in representing the district and to try to bring these approval numbers down come election day. Just offering an alternative is not going to be good enough.
The head-to-head match-ups with announced and potential opponents came out like this:
- Bright leads Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby 54-30 percent
- Bright leads state school board member Stephanie Bell 55-29 percent
- Bright leads Montgomery businessman Rick Barber 58-26 percent
It seems as if the “anyone but Bobby” crowd would be firmly behind any of these opponents, and probably hovers around a quarter of the electorate. The bad news is, that neither of the two candidates who are already in the race have been able to add much to that camp. Combine these numbers with Roby’s fundraising numbers and I think the odds of Bright holding onto this seat are quite good, despite many predictions to the contrary from national and local politicos.
Your thoughts are appreciated in the comments below.
UPDATE: The National Journal Blog, Hotline, also picked up the numbers.
UPDATE 2: Swing State Project seems a bit giddy over the results.
UPDATE 3: Mooncat at Left in Alabama points out it may also serve notice that the PVI system breaks down in states where one party or the other doesn’t compete in presidential elections.
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