Polls

Which gubernatorial candidate is running the most effective online campaign?

  • Bradley Byrne (33%, 80 Votes)
  • Artur Davis (28%, 67 Votes)
  • Tim James (20%, 47 Votes)
  • Bill Johnson (9%, 22 Votes)
  • Ron Sparks (6%, 14 Votes)
  • Roy Moore (2%, 4 Votes)
  • Robert Bentley (1%, 3 Votes)
  • Kay Ivey (1%, 2 Votes)
  • James Potts (0%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 241

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9.4

365 votes cast for 231 posts

Bright Going to be Tougher to Unseat than Some Believed

By TWAY Kris

Rep. Bobby Bright released some polling numbers to the Montgomery Advertiser that appeared in today’s edition.  The numbers are from respected pollster John Anzalone, and he does offer caveats about what they mean, acknowledging the low name ID for Bright’s opponents and how far from election day we are.  Still, there is a lot of positive here for Rep. Bright.  His favorability rating is 68% for a Democrat sitting in a Republican-leaning district, that is pretty amazing, but given the current political climate it is darn near incredible.  His job approval also stands at almost 70% and his disapproval rating is only 25%.  If he can keep his numbers at those levels, he is going to be extremely tough to beat.  People don’t generally vote out a congressman they think is doing a good job, no matter who the opponent is.  I would expect this poll will cause his opponents to invest heavily in defining Bright as a failure in representing the district and to try to bring these approval numbers down come election day.  Just offering an alternative is not going to be good enough.

The head-to-head match-ups with announced and potential opponents came out like this:

- Bright leads Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby 54-30 percent

- Bright leads state school board member Stephanie Bell 55-29 percent

- Bright leads Montgomery businessman Rick Barber 58-26 percent

It seems as if the “anyone but Bobby” crowd would be firmly behind any of these opponents, and probably hovers around a quarter of the electorate.  The bad news is, that neither of the two candidates who are already in the race have been able to add much to that camp.  Combine these numbers with Roby’s fundraising numbers and I think the odds of Bright holding onto this seat are quite good, despite many predictions to the contrary from national and local politicos.

Your thoughts are appreciated in the comments below.

UPDATE:  The National Journal Blog, Hotline, also picked up the numbers.

UPDATE 2: Swing State Project seems a bit giddy over the results.

UPDATE 3: Mooncat at Left in Alabama points out it may also serve notice that  the PVI system breaks down in states where one party or the other doesn’t compete in presidential elections.

February 28th, 2010 | Tags: , , , | Category: Politics | 7 comments

Bobby Bright as Example of the Challenge Southern Blue Dogs Face

By TWAY Kris

The New York Times had a piece that was just posted on Congressman Bobby Bright as an example of the challenges Blue Dog Democrats face in the South.  Which is funny, because in the meat of the piece we get this,

Since winning, Mr. Bright has been such a purebred Blue Dog that he is practically red. He has voted with the Republicans on every significant piece of legislation of his term, including the health care overhaul, the budget and the “cap and trade” energy legislation. The reaction to his rare party-line votes helps explain why: a largely pro forma vote to keep Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House has drawn the ire of some of his supporters.

But staunch Republican voters in his district point to the advantages of having a Democrat in Washington: Mr. Bright is constantly making the rounds — because he has to — and he votes like a man who knows he is being watched.

“I don’t believe that Bobby would survive if he didn’t vote conservative in this district,” said Mike Barefield, 60, a conservative and normally Republican voter in Ozark who supports Mr. Bright. “It doesn’t take but one or two votes to change people’s minds.”

Mr. Bright declined to comment for this article.

Another smart play by Rep. Bright in not commenting for this piece.  He would earn no points from voters in his district by talking to the Times, and he knows it.  He has to continue to use his personal appeal to overcome the negative feelings about the President in his district.  Democrats both inside and outside Alabama vastly underestimate that challenge.

I have consistently spoken up in favor of Congressman Bright here as someone who represents how it is possible to put aside party and represent the interests of those whom you serve first.  He accomplished a great deal as Mayor of Montgomery and I hope he is allowed to remain in Congress long enough to accomplish many things there as well.

As always, your comments are appreciated below.

January 3rd, 2010 | Tags: , | Category: Alabama, Politics | 5 comments

Bright and Griffith Among Most Vulnerable Blue Dogs in ‘10

By TWAY Kris

Nate Silver made a point yesterday in passing that was very interesting to me.  He was countering an argument by Chris Bowers that Bowers isn’t really concerned about the expected loss in seats at the mid-term for Democrats.  As always, Nate goes to the numbers and shows that the seats that are most vulnerable would be quite a loss, because even in those seats, the majority of Representatives voted for the key bills this year (Healthcare, the Climate bill and the Stimulus).  No surprise to regular readers, Alabama Democratic Representatives Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith were 0-for-3 on those proposals.

The interesting passing point is that Bright and Griffith are two of a minority of only 14 Blue Dogs on the vulnerable list (there are 53 members of the Blue Dog Democrats)…and that has more to do with their being freshman than it does with their being Blue Dogs.  Nate goes on to make a point that some of my progressive friends would do well to think on…

[T]he Blue Dogs do not in fact vote as a block bloc; most are pliable to one degree or another on at least some progressive priorities, if unreliable on others. Are the bills that emerged from the House as strong as progressives were hoping for? Certainly not. But I fail to see how Peolsi compromised any more than she basically needed to, or how the bills would have become stronger if you’d replaced these Democrats with Republicans.

Sure, the ConservaDems are annoying. But they represent only a minority of those under electoral pressure. And this approach to getting rid of them is a bit like solving your termite problem by burning your house down.

I have repeatedly made the point that as frustrating as Bright’s and Griffith’s votes have been to many Democrats, there is no question the alternative would have been worse.  Obviously, repetition is not going to convince anyone, but perhaps reinforcements will aid the argument.

December 1st, 2009 | Tags: , , , | Category: Politics | 5 comments

What Bright and Griffith Could Have Done Differently…

By TWAY Kris

I spent the better part of this past weekend defending Democratic Rep. Artur Davis, Rep. Bobby Bright and Rep. Parker Griffith to progressives around the country.  Why?  Because they were amongst the 39 Democrats who voted against HR 3962 on Saturday night, and many progressives view that as unforgiveable offense.

Here is the reality, when advocates for healthcare reform called to talk to staffers in Rep. Bright and Griffith’s offices, they were told the calls, e-mails, letters and faxes were running about 80-90% against the bill.  What is a representative supposed to do with that?  If the feedback was evenly split, then yes, you take a principled position and defend it to those who feel different to the best of your ability.  But how exactly is any representative supposed to defend going against 90% of his consituents?

So, believe me I  understand the WHY of their votes, but they could have done more to present the facts to their constituents without supporting the bill.  Rep. Griffith only did one town-hall style meeting and Rep. Bright did none (only a conference call).  Even more than that, Rep. Bright did a series of meetings on how to obtain federal funds during the recess when other congressmen and women were defending the bill to their constituents.  I’m not suggesting Griffith and Bright should have defended a bill that they don’t believe in, but they certainly could have had more discussions where they explained why they didn’t like the bill and asked constituents to express their concerns about healthcare as well.  Perhaps they could even have corrected some of the misinformation that was flying around (and continues), imagine that.

Rep. Davis is in a very different position.  He stated clearly back in August, why he was against what the House was trying to do.  The provisions that bothered him then were still part of the plan that passed on Saturday.  I don’t believe this vote would have been a make or break issue, even if he was running for re-election to Congress, but I also don’t dispute those who argue he had different considerations because he is running for governor.  He has stood alone among the Alabama delegation many times in the seven years he has been in Congress, and it would not have been a surprise for him to do so again.  Yet, he is also a strong supporter of small business, so his thinking should not be a shock to anyone who has followed the congressman closely.

In the end, the votes of congressmen and women are influenced by many factors, but anyone who expects a representative to go against their fellow constituents at the levels that were expected from Bright and Griffith is just impossible.  And those who understand the importance of small business men and women to Rep. Davis should not be surprised that this bill was a struggle for him as well.  In the end, none of their votes were needed and we move on to the Senate and another battle where the entire Alabama delegation will be against the legislation from the start.

November 9th, 2009 | Tags: , , , | Category: Politics | 24 comments
 
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