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How McCain Could Win

This looks to me the most likely path for McCain to win next Tuesday. Thanks to the map tool at NPR.org, I began by giving their toss-up states all to McCain (Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida) and then gave him Pennsylvania to boot. That puts him at 273 and he’s in the White House.

Nightmare scenario I know, but it is certainly possible.

McCain Map

Obama Does Not Want to “Redistribute Wealth”

Once again, McCain demonstrates he has no positive message, as his closing argument seems to be to call Obama names that have no basis in reality.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton dismissed the interview as “a fake news controversy drummed up by the all too common alliance of Fox News, the Drudge Report, and John McCain, who apparently decided to close out his campaign with the same false, desperate attacks that have failed for months.”

“Obama did not say that the courts should get into the business of redistributing wealth at all,” Burton said in a statement.

The Obama campaign also referred to comments made by Cass Sunstein, a Harvard law professor who is advising Obama, to the Politico website. Sunstein said Obama was discussing redistribution in a narrow legal context of whether the Supreme Court would create rights to education and welfare, and was actually taking the conservative position that those rights should be won through legislative action and not the courts.

Yes, heaven forbid we discuss the heart of what he was REALLY talking about and not what some people believe he said because they aren’t lawyers who deal in civil rights issues. I don’t know how many times we have to say it, but no one seems to be able to answer the charge, if he’s really who the McCain folks tell you he is, than why is the man who McCain says he wants as his Secretary of the Treasury (Warren Buffet) supporting Obama?

McCain attacks Obama on redistribution – The Boston Globe.

Is it Really Over?

Those who support Obama are finding it almost impossible to believe that the race is really over, 11 days out, but Politico has the most powerful report yet, that even those within the McCain campaign believe it.

One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns.

“It’s not an extraordinarily happy place to be right now,” said one senior McCain aide. “I’m not gonna lie. It’s just unfortunate.”

“If you really want to see what ‘going negative’ is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we’re starting to see,” said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. “And there’s one common theme: Everyone who wasn’t part of the campaign could have done better.”

“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”

When people are running for the exits and pointing fingers, it’s a sure sign that it’s over…it doesn’t mean anyone should give up, on either side, but President Obama is looking more and more likely every day.

Blame game: GOP forms circular firing squad – Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen and John F. Harris – Politico.com.

McCain’s Path to Victory Keeps Narrowing

The Obama campaign cannot afford to get complacent, because polls can be wrong, but the New York Observer does a good job of laying out the uphill task for McCain, as it stands today:

Just consider the electoral map. Four years ago, George W. Bush won re-election with 286 electoral votes, meaning he had almost no margin for error. So to win this year, Mr. McCain would need to either hold on to all of the states that Mr. Bush won or to compensate for the loss of a few Bush states by picking off a Democratic state or two.

This is easier said than done. By any reasonable standard, Mr. McCain has fallen hopelessly behind in Iowa, a Bush state, where polls consistently give Mr. Obama double-digit leads. And he now routinely trails by nearly ten points in polls in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, Bush states all. As with national polls, there is absolutely no evidence in any of these states of movement toward Mr. McCain; if anything, the trend is against him – especially in Virginia, where the race was legitimately even a month ago.

Together, these states account for 34 electoral votes. If Mr. McCain can’t manufacture miracles in at least three of them over the last two weeks of the campaign, he won’t even have a theoretical chance of reaching 270 electoral votes with just Bush states.

And this isn’t even taking into consideration the countless Bush states in which Mr. McCain is at least competitive. North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, and North Dakota: To believe that Mr. McCain will yet win the White House is to believe that he will win every single one of these states, even though he now trails in many of them.

Then there are the blue states. Of all the states that John Kerry won in 2004, New Hampshire is the closest – Mr. Obama leads by seven points, on average – but it’s only worth four electoral votes, and anyway the trend in the Granite State is working against Mr. McCain. Where else? Pennsylvania? Mr. Obama leads by 16 points there, on average. In Minnesota, his lead is eight. After that, there really aren’t any blue state targets for Mr. McCain, who recently stopped throwing money into Michigan, Wisconsin and Maine.

And combining those challenges with the fact that the news cycle today will be dominated with discussion of the $150,000 the RNC spent on Sarah Palin’s hair, wardrobe and make-up…McCain’s in deep, deep trouble. Nobody can say this campaign is over before election day, but it certainly appears that without a significant event to change the dynamic, we will have a new president early in the evening on November 4th.