As I mentioned two days ago, the fallout from Rep. Parker Griffith’s decision to switch from the Democratic party and join the GOP will send significant ripples across the Alabama political scene, and boy has it ever. Here is just a sampling of the fallout:
Personal Impact
First, the switch guarantees him nothing in terms of maintaining his office, it simply changes the set of challenges he faces. His press secretary resigned. He now is part of a party who went after him with both barrels during the 2008 election, attacking not just his politics but his integrity. Yet, the Republican party establishment has generally been welcoming, with state treasurer and candidate for governor Kay Ivey (herself a party switcher in the ’80’s) being a notable exception.
He also was accused by the state Democratic party of downloading data in the “wee hours” prior to his announcement (Politico dubbed it “Parker-gate“) that was confidential and assembled by the party. Rep. Griffith has since offered a statement in response to the accusation saying he would delete the data in question. He was aided in the effort by his consultants from Main Street Strategies, run by political consultant Joey Ceci, which sent additional ripples into the gubernatorial race, as noted below.
5th Congressional District race
The most obvious immediate impact here is leaving no Democratic candidate in the 5th congressional district, which has been represented by a Democrat since the late 1800’s. There are many names being floated as potential candidates in the race, but we know the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) called current state Agricultural Commissioner, and candidate for governor, Ron Sparks to ask him to consider a run for the seat. His decision could extend the ripples of the Griffith decision out to yet another level, causing a significant shake-up in the governor’s race, as Artur Davis will likely remain unopposed in the Democratic primary, which will allow him to conserve resources until the general election.
Griffith’s switch also had a significant ripple effect on the Republican side of the race. Certainly, the national Republican party is not going to let it’s new shining example fail. I fully expect an effort to get Mo Brooks to drop from the race (though he maintains he will not), but Les Phillip will likely stay in and Wayne Parker (Griffith’s Republican opponent in 2008) is now starting to chatter about making another run at the seat as well.
Alabama Governor’s Race
When news of the activity by Main Street Strategies became public, it was closely followed by gubernatorial candidate Artur Davis asking for and receiving Ceci’s resignation as a consultant to his campaign. That was obviously a hit to his campaign, but a hole that can be filled. The bigger development will be if Sparks decides to abandon his run for governor to become the Democratic challenger in Griffith’s district. That would leave Artur Davis as the lone candidate in the Democratic primary and radically change the shape of the race. Davis would be able to hold resources and focus on targeted challenges to Republican candidates, who would then be dealing with an extremely competitive primary of their own. It is a dream scenario for Davis and a nightmare for the eventual Republican nominee.
From my perspective Griffith made the decision he had to make to stand a chance at holding his seat, he was a dead duck as a Democrat. It also gives the Democratic party a chance to field a candidate that has broader support from its own base and brings a new energy to the race for them as well. If a strong candidate is fielded, it may end up being a win for both parties. As for Sparks, I think he will flirt with the race, but will ultimately decline and remain in the governor’s race, if only to offer people an alternative to Davis. Another part of the story that will be fun to watch is who is willing to work with Joey Ceci in the coming year, or if he becomes toxic amongst Democrats after aiding Griffith’s switch. All-in-all, quite a Christmas surprise for Alabama politicos.
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