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By TWAY Kris
The latest TWAY poll results are in. This time, the question we asked was “Which gubernatorial candidate is running the most effective online campaign?” Our completely unscientific (but still interesting) results are:
Bradley Byrne 33%
Artur Davis 28%
Tim James 20%
Bill Johnson 9%
Ron Sparks 6%
Roy Moore 2%
Robert Bentley 1%
Kay Ivey 1%
James Potts <1%
I also wanted to check-in once again with some objective numbers (and subjective analysis) on the use of social media by the candidates for Alabama governor. Let’s look at the number of Facebook “fans”, Twitter “followers” and You Tube “subscribers”.
[gdocs type='spreadsheet' st_id='0AnkbXmhwgbPIdENFcDkwcHhPdXRBU1JCd0Nka2VCVFE' wt_id='od6']
 We last visited the usage of Twitter by candidates in December. While the number of pieces of information flowing on Twitter have changed quite dramatically, there is still a key piece of what social media is all about missing, interaction. While there is now much interaction between surrogates (including campaign staff) and the general public, there is still very little to no interaction from the candidates themselves. We receive assurances that most if not all of the candidates are now producing their own tweets (which I still find suspect), but few questions are being answered or posed from those accounts.
As I did in December, I looked at the results from Twitalyzer, which is an application that provides a way to score your impact in the Twitter universe. Here is how the candidates shake out (with their December scores in parentheses):
@ArturDavis: 3.4 (1.8)
@Bradley Byrne: 1.6 (1.4)
@TimJames2010: 1.5 (0.9)
@Moore2010: 1.5 (0)
@Bentley2010: 0.9 (0.1)
@TeamJohnson2010: 0.5 (0.9)
@KayIvey: 0.4 (0.5)
@RonSparks2010: 0.3 (0.2)
Congressman Davis continues to expand his lead over the field by this measure, almost doubling his score from December. Roy Moore made the next biggest move, followed by Rep. Bentley, then Tim James and Bill Johnson. Kay Ivey and Ron Sparks actually regressed since December. From my own experience with following these accounts, I once again believe this objective measure to coincide with my subjective opinion of what is happening. I am impressed with the engagement of the James campaign on social media, and their use of it in getting out their message. I still believe Davis’s apparatus has been superior, but the gap is closing.
By TWAY Kris
Well, the remaining financial reports in the Alabama governor’s race came out today, and it was a bit of a frenzy keeping up and there has been a good bit of debate over exactly where we stand. One measure to look at is contributions:
Bradley Byrne $2,605,011
Artur Davis $2,174,110
Tim James $1,360,632
Ron Sparks $656,188
Roy Moore $379,880
Robert Bentley $144,067
Kay Ivey $87,019
Bill Johnson $80,405
Another way to look at the numbers is to look at total receipts (this includes loans from the candidate themselves and others):
Bradley Byrne $2,713,474
Artur Davis $2,182,168
Tim James $2,060,632
Kay Ivey $1,861,105
Ron Sparks $1,264,688
Robert Bentley $931,067
Roy Moore $388,880
Bill Johnson $120,405
And finally the one that most of us agree is the “bottom line” to begin 2010, cash on hand:
Tim James $2,618,733
Bradley Byrne $1,824,610
Kay Ivey $1,560,896
Artur Davis $1,391,023
Ron Sparks $836,095
Robert Bentley $733,254
Roy Moore $145,068
Bill Johnson $56,895
Here is a graphic representation put together by Stephen Gordon of the second and third numbers for each candidate (except Tim James, where Stephen included the $2 million Tim James loaned himself in 8/2008 in his total raised, if only so that it didn’t look like he had more cash on hand than he raised).
Now there is a good bit of “funny money” in play here. Almost all of Kay Ivey’s and Robert Bentley’s is their own, almost half of Ron Spark’s and Tim James money as well. Those dollars do not necessarily demonstrate anything in terms of voter support, but a dollar is a dollar when you need it to run a campaign. You also have the $1 million that Artur Davis rolled over from his congressional campaign (no differently than then Congressman Bob Riley did when he ran in 2002).
On the Republican side, my overall assessment is that Byrne and James have separated themselves from the pack. Some folks thought Roy Moore might come out strong, as he did in 2006, but that did not occur and his campaign looks to be DOA, along with that of Bill Johnson. Robert Bentley and Kay Ivey could still play the role of spoilers, provided they are really willing to spend the dough they put out on the reports.
On the Democratic side of things, it’s a little more complicated. Ron Sparks did some magical dollar shuffling of his own to appear as strong as possible in this report, while Artur Davis likely still has quite a bit left in the tank in the fundraising department. However, Davis is also burning through funds at a higher rate than some of the other candidates. He will have to continue to raise at a substantial clip to keep up with that burn rate. Still, the numbers Davis posted help strengthen his front-runner status over Sparks.
I’m interested in your take on the numbers below.
By TWAY Kris
My friend Danny at Political Parlor had to play some catch-up this past Tuesday, and I have been MIA for even longer. I will be working to try to get back to some form of normalcy here, I appreciate all my readers and friends who have offered support and encouragement during a difficult time for me and my family.
So, what have you missed?
- Jeremy Walker announced his run for the HD-73 seat held by Rep. David Grimes. Two days later, the man either Walker or Grimes will likely face in the fall, Montgomery attorney (and grandson of former U.S. Sen. Lister Hill) Joe Hubbard reported raising $50,000 in his first fundraising report.
- The Alabama House has been quite busy passing legislation, including a bill to require P.E. for some students (no waivers as are often used today), a bill to give subpoena powers to the state ethics commission and a bill to ban PAC-to-PAC transfers.
- Meanwhile the Senate has been gridlocked over a bill from Sen. Lowell Barron that would borrow $1 billion over ten years from the Alabama Trust Fund to do road and bridge work across the state.
- Alabama gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Artur Davis released a new poll by Anzalone-Lizst that indicates he has maintained and even built on the support he was showing last summer. At the same time, Republican gubernatorial candidate Roy Moore was claiming, based on polling, that he was leading the Republican field.
- There was quite an uproar over the edits that AEA Executive Secretary Paul Hubbert was able to make at the last minute to the states “Race to the Top” application to the federal government. This is yet another example of why many people feel AEA has too much power.
- Former state treasurer Lucy Baxley publicly stated this week that the language in PACT contracts was changed during the time she was in office and that whatever obligation the state has is moral, not legal.
- There was a lengthy piece of investigative journalism in the Huntsville Times regarding the motivations and reasoning of U.S. Rep. Parker Griffith’s decision to switch from the Democratic Party to the GOP.
- Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim James revealed a six-point plan to save money in state budgets, which basically amounted to stick it to state employees…a reminder of the kind of relationship his father had with those who worked under him.
- Governor Bob Riley continued his crusade against gambling by appointing Mobile County District Attorney John Tyson as the new head of his taskforce on illegal gambling. The move was viewed by many as another direct poke in the eye to Attorney General Troy King, because Tyson is a Democrat who ran, and almost unseated, King in the last election. It was then discovered that Tyson took money from gambling interests during his campaign for attorney general. Of course those who support the gambling operation owners and their supporters had plenty to say about that. Tyson also announced today he would not seek re-election as district attorney. The taskforce attempted to raid both Country Crossing and Victoryland this morning, though it appears they were stopped by attorneys in Dothan and by a judge’s order in Macon County.
- Gubernatorial candidate Bradley Byrne held a press conference this week accusing the AEA of intimidation because of the way they served him with papers regarding a lawsuit from his time as chancellor of the two-year college system. Byrne was certainly looking for an opportunity to offer an illustration of the opposition he faces, and this gave him a chance to do it.
- Powerful State Sen. Hank Sanders changed his mind and decided to run for re-election to an eighth term in the Alabama Senate.
- Agriculture Commissioner, and candidate for governor, Ron Sparks continued to attempt to stain his opponent in the governor’s race by pointing out that Rep. Artur Davis would not be attending the State of the Union speech on Tuesday night. Sparks also announced this week the hiring of a new communications director.
- A 30 year-old case involving racial bias in teacher testing was finally closed this week.
- ALFA, the Alabama Farmers Federation, came out with its primary endorsements today, but declined to endorse in either gubernatorial primary or the 5th congressional district race.
I hope to get back to a more regular pattern of reporting and commenting in the next few weeks. Thank you for continuing to stop by and feel free to offer your comments on these events below.
By TWAY Kris
As noted already by Politico (first in a blog, then a full-blown article) and Left in Alabama, candidate for Alabama governor, Rep. Artur Davis released a statement today blasting his primary opponent and advocating taking a step back from healthcare reform to focus on jobs,
Leadership is about building broad support for results. By that definition, it is increasingly obvious that the political process in Washington has failed to lead on health care reform, and that Americans in every corner of the country want a different approach.
It is clear that Alabamians share the same deep concerns. They believe, as I do, that we need to get on with the essential task of revitalizing this economy and getting Americans and Alabamians back to work. They also agree that instead of trying to do too much, Congress should return to a simple focus: helping individuals and businesses afford the cost of insurance and stopping insurance companies from discriminating against sick people.
Ron Sparks, who supports the flawed health care legislation in Washington, should realize that he is not only out of touch with the state he wants to lead, Ron Sparks would even be out of touch in Massachusetts.
To put Sparks’ position in perspective – he supports new mandates and taxes on businesses during the toughest business climate in a generation; he supports raising income taxes and Medicare taxes while the costs of insurance would still keep rising; and he apparently has no problem with a process that has been corrupted with secret deals that favor some states and make the rest of us pay for their special treatment.
Whatever else you say about Congressman Davis, you cannot say he is afraid to lead. The question still remains whether there will be enough people willing to follow. He’s saying the things many Alabamians want to hear, but not necessarily a majority of those in a Democratic primary. I am extremely interested in how this rhetoric is playing with the electorate, or if they’re even listening at all.
There was also an article today describing comments Rep. Davis made to the District Attorneys Association on Wednesday regarding gambling,
“Gaming, bingo, the degree to which we allow, don’t allow gambling, you recognize that we need practical approaches to those issues,” Davis told the group. Davis said the choice really is not whether the state is going to allow gambling or not, because the Poarch Creeks for years have had gaming operations over which the state has no control.
“The real question is, what are the rules of the road going to be? How do we regulate the gaming we have?” Davis said.
The key words in that quote are “practical approaches”…it’s a phrase you will hear over and over again from Rep. Davis and it’s one of the reasons his message resonates with many Alabamians. You can have all the high-minded ideals in the world, but the practicality of how government works (or doesn’t work) and the problems we face is going to stare the next governor right in the face.
Rep. Davis is continuing to hit a strong general election message tone with his statements, it’s a gamble when he is not running unopposed to run this far to the right this early, but it’s also where he is most comfortable. He has been a moderate voice in Congress and it’s apparent the campaign decided to emphasize that, even in the Democratic primary. Will those that are more progressive than the congressman put their support behind Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, remain on the sidelines or swallow the bitter pill and acknowledge that, particularly in 2010, a pragmatic moderate governor who leans a little to the left may be the best they can do?
I’m interested in your comments below.
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We last visited the usage of Twitter by candidates in December. While the number of pieces of information flowing on Twitter have changed quite dramatically, there is still a key piece of what social media is all about missing, interaction. While there is now much interaction between surrogates (including campaign staff) and the general public, there is still very little to no interaction from the candidates themselves. We receive assurances that most if not all of the candidates are now producing their own tweets (which I still find suspect), but few questions are being answered or posed from those accounts.
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