The World Around You

Some really interesting numbers out today from Public Strategy Associates and pollster Mike Baselice.  These numbers look very realistic, first because of the high number of undecided voters identified.  The reality is a large number of Republican primary voters haven’t sorted through this field yet and if a pollster pushes them to pick one candidate over another, name ID is going to drive the decision more than who they will ultimately choose to support (explaining some of the previously high numbers we’ve heard about for Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore).

This poll revealed that 46% of those polled are undecided, which is good and bad news for candidates in the race.  They still have a lot of work to do.  Some of them have been at this for almost a year, and only about half of the primary electorate has made up their minds.  That could be a little disheartening, but also a big opportunity for all of the candidates in the race. 

The poll also show how difficult it is going to be for anyone to get a majority of the vote and avoid a run-off.  If you look at those voters who have made a decision, about a third are going for former two-year college chancellor Bradley Byrne, a third for Roy Moore and businessman Tim James leading in the remaining third.  I thought the numbers when you combined first and second choice made it even more apparent that, right now, it is a three-person race:

Byrne – 1st Choice of 20%, 2nd Choice of 7% = 27%

Moore – 1st Choice of 17%, 2nd Choice of 7% = 24%

James – 1st Choice of 8%, 2nd Choice of 8% = 16%

That means that half of those who have made up their minds like Byrne enough to make him their first or second choice.  Almost half feel the same about Moore.  In fact, I was surprised at the number of folks who picked Moore and Byrne as their 1-2 selection in one order or the other, seems like a strange pair to be torn between to me.  Tim James doubles his support when you look at second choice, which makes him a player as well, if the field thins or the front-runners stumble.

I was also impressed with Byrne’s strong showing across the ideology spectrum.  I would have thought he would be trailing Roy Moore even more amongst those who consider themselves “very conservative”, considering most view Byrne’s biggest deficit as the perception that he is too moderate.  However, these numbers show different.  Byrne runs a strong second to Moore’s 24%, with 18%, amongst those who label themselves “very conservative”.  As expected, Byrne has strong leads amongst less conservative members of the Republican electorate and Moore falls back to the rest of the pack in those categories (which do not make up the majority of the electorate in a Republican primary).

Byrne must remain competitive (within 5-7 points) with the “very conservative” 55% of the primary electorate, but he doesn’t have to win that group to win the race.  That’s the balancing act he faces, appealing to enough of these voters to get through the primary, while still leaving himself in a position to gain independent and Democratic support in the general election.  Moore’s strategy is more straightforward, shore up as much of the “very conservative” base as possible and mobilize them actively both through the primary and a potential general election, because his baggage with less conservative voters is substantial.

The breakdown by gender was also a bit surprising in that State Treasurer Kay Ivey didn’t see any bump in her support amongst women.  She polled at 3% both among males and females.  That has to be disheartening to her (as if polling at 3% isn’t disheartening enough).

Big thanks to Public Strategy Associates for conducting the poll and I am interested in your comments and thoughts below.

**UPDATE:  National Journal had some comments and quotes on the poll here.